This is a cheap spread on a Chippewas squad at home in Mount Pleasant against the Owls. Cash in on Central Michigan Saturday afternoon in MAC play against Temple.
There are few things that we do each week that are more important than “autopsies,” those processes of breaking down the games that go far beyond traditional methodologies, and in turn can lead to the kind of insights that can have us far ahead of the marketplace moving forward. And there can be nothing better in terms of finding future edges than an autopsy that shows that a patient was not even dead. That sets this one up for us.
In terms of the scoreboard result, our 4* play against Temple last week was as bad of a call as we have made on the college gridirons this season, and perhaps in several years. We were bucking a team that was struggling badly on offense because of so many freshmen playing key roles, and one that had not scored a touchdown in consecutive games since losing starting QB Adam DiMichele, and turning the reins over to red-shirt freshman QB Chester Stewart. Note that it was not even a case of Stewart truly winning the job anyway – Al Golden wants to red-shirt Vaughn Charlton, who had starting experience LY, and was merely using Stewart to bridge the gap until DiMichele can return.
Our interest peaked even more when Stewart did not practice last week, and was still wearing a walking boot on Friday. So what exactly did we learn in both viewing, and then doing a further autopsy on Temple’s 28-10 win at Miami O.? Mostly that the RedHawks are much worse than we thought they were. As for that Temple offense, note that the Owls had only 11 first downs, managed just 2.9 yards per carry, and for the second time in as many starts, Stewart completed less than 50 percent of his passes. It was not a case of Temple being good, but rather Miami being bad.
But that is not how the markets reacted. Miami closed at -7 last week, and now we find a much better Central Michigan team laying only -7½. It shows that the marketplace significantly upgraded Temple through that scoreboard result, despite the fact that many of the Owl weaknesses were still most evident (particularly the penalty issues that we wrote about last week, with Temple picking up nine more, taking the season total to 50 flags for 428 yards in only six games). And now we get the excellent timing of the Chippewas not only having two weeks to prepare, but of that very Temple scoreboard result also telling them that they can not take this opponent lightly.
This now gives us a veteran team (11 senior starters on offense and defense, with eight juniors) off of back-to-back M.A.C. titles that will play with a special focus on Homecoming weekend. And with the precision of QB Dan LeFevour leading the way they can exploit a young Owl defense. LeFevour leads the conference in total offense and is 11th nationally at 317.8 yards per game, but what we like even more is how this offense values the football, with only four turnovers in 363 snaps. His experience has allowed for a lot of no-huddle looks, which can befuddle a young opponent that did not face them last year, and will be on their heels throughout.
That also sets a tempo that forces Stewart and the Temple offense to have to open up from behind, something that they lack the ability to do. It all adds up to a game that can break wide open, yet is being offered at a bargain rate.
Free Pick: Central Michigan -7½ (-110)