With not much time off before having to face Georgia Tech, the Clemson Tigers will be playing it conservative today at home against Middle Tennessee State.
When a pointspread is this high the result will often go beyond matchups and personnel issues, and instead be determined by the focus of the teams involved. That gives us both a Play-Against and a Play-On in this one, and ultimately a result much closer than what the oddsmakers are calling for.
If ever there was a “Win and get back to the dorms” setting for an opener this is it. Clemson is caught in the awkward cycle of having a major ACC revenge showdown at Georgia Tech on national television Thursday night, and that impacts both the intensity level and the technical preparations here. Because the Yellow Jacket option schemes are so unorthodox under Paul Johnson, putting a defensive game plan in place in a short practice week is a major headache. So how much time will have been taken away from preparation for this particular game, and instead geared towards Tech? Plenty.
That not only opens up some breathing room for Middle Tennessee to be successful during the game, but it also means that Dabo Swinney will perceive the time remaining as the key item on the scoreboard in the second half, wanting to shorten the evening to keep his better players fresh for the quick turnaround ahead. And with so many new faces in the skill positions it is not at though this offense brings the kind of cohesion and explosiveness needed to cover this type of margin anyway.
For Middle Tennessee the focus is entirely different. Head coach Rick Stockstill worked for a couple of years to get this trip on the schedule, after serving as a Clemson assistant for 14 seasons earlier in his career, and that trickles down throughout the program – four of his assistant coaches also spent time on the sidelines in Death Valley, and Justin Watts and Willie Simmons wore Tiger uniforms on this field. Add in four other members of the program with Clemson ties and this trip carries a lot of meaning. The key is that the Blue Raiders also bring enough to do something about it.
They more than held their own outside the Sun Belt last year, beating Maryland outright by 10 and losing to Kentucky and Mississippi State in single digits. Now Stockstill has his best team yet, especially on offense, where Dwight Dasher finally gets to run the show full-time at QB, with all other 10 starters returning. They are going to spread the field with four-WR sets that are entirely different from what Clemson is going to face at Georgia Tech, which means not only a chance to be competitive right from the start, but also prime back-door potential, should we need to come in through that direction.
Free Pick: Middle Tennessee +18½ (-110)