The
Clemson Tigers want to keep pace with the Florida State Seminoles in the ACC, Atlantic Division, race, but to do so, they’ll need to survive a tricky road trip
to Durham this Saturday night. Read our preview/play before making your own college football picks.
While the Blue
Devils are 6-3 and bowl-eligible for the first time since 1994, they’re still viewed with an air of skepticism. They are 13-point home
underdogs at Bodog for this contest.
The Tigers can win because…
Clemson has bigger and better athletes
than Duke – don't allow your mind to become any more cluttered or your
reasoning to become more muddled as you analyze this game. It really is as
simple as that. The Tigers have so much NFL talent at the running back and
receiver positions, with Andre Ellington as a next-level ball carrier and Sammy
Watkins as a lethal threat on the edges. Quarterback Tajh Boyd has so many
weapons to throw to, so many choices he can make when he surveys the field from
a spread formation. Duke's secondary and linebackers are going to be spread
wide and stretched thin. The Blue Devils have been admirably plucky and
resilient on defense this season, but they're going to be overmatched by
Clemson's heavy artillery.
What also has to
be said about this matchup is that in the past Clemson lacked the mental
toughness needed to take care of inferior opponents. Now, Clemson is a more mature team, thanks largely to the improvements made to the offense by coordinator Chad Morris, who, it can be argued, has transformed the program more than head coach Dabo Swinney. (It can
be said that Swinney has transformed the program only because he had the wisdom
and foresight to hire Morris in the first place.) Clemson didn't fool around on
Oct. 25 when it dismantled Wake Forest in a Thursday night national-television
game. It shouldn't mess around with Duke, either, in what is also a national-TV
tussle.
The Blue Devils can win because…
Duke knows it
will have to score a lot of points just to stay close to Clemson, but that's
precisely the point – the Blue Devils are in a position to score a lot.
Clemson's defense
is awful. The Tigers allowed Florida State to score 35 points in the second
half (actually, those points were posted in a time period that was several
minutes less than 30) of the Sept. 22 game that has the Tigers in second place,
not first, in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson conceded large chunks of yards to
Boston College and Georgia Tech, displaying a lack of quality that is shocking
for a school that – despite its presence in the ACC – cares about football with
a fervor normally reserved for a Southeastern Conference program. New defensive
coordinator Brent Venables has not been able to expunge bad habits from
Clemson's defense.
Duke's offense –
while not fast – is clever. Head coach David Cutcliffe has instilled a
read-based offense that puts defenses on a pendulum. When defenses expect the
run, quarterback Sean Renfree fakes the handoff and throws an intermediate pass
in the seams for 12 yards. When defenses expect a pass, Renfree hands the ball
off and gives his offense a five-yard gain. Duke plays keep-away and steadily
moves the ball in this manner. Clemson's defense is likely to get quite
frustrated by this approach from Duke. If the Blue Devils can create a few
home-run plays with their offense, they can create enough in-game pressure to
rattle Clemson's offense. A 42-38 win is hardly out of the question for Duke,
one of the feel-good stories of the season in college football.
Outlook & NCAA Football Betting Prediction:
Duke will score
at least 30, but Clemson will probably score well over 40 points. The Tigers
have too much firepower for the Blue Devils, though Duke will be able to cover
the spread.
NCAA
Football Picks: Duke +13