These two teams have never faced each other on the college gridiron, and I believe that LA-Monroe will not want to schedule any more matchups against the Baylor Bears after tonight’s game is completed. Where should we make our college football picks in this game?

Simulator Projections and Grading

20* graded college football pick on the Baylor Bears as they take on Louisiana-Monroe (LAR) in a Friday night college football game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 10 or more points. The simulator further projects That LAM will score between 22 and 28 points. In past games, where the Baylor defense has played solid defense they are 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they allowed 22 to 28 points. 

Kolton Browning

The game projections focus squarely on the Baylor offense and the expectations that they will have a huge night. The simulator projects that Baylor will gain more than nine passing yards per pass attempt, will gain between 5.0 and 5.5 rushing yards per attempt, will score between 42 and 48 points, and will gain more than 500 total offensive yards. 

In past games, these offensive outbursts have rewarded bettor very well. Baylor is a solid 11-5 ATS the past three seasons and 29-12 ATS since 1992 when they have gained more than nine passing yards per attempt. They are also 7-0 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 9.5 and 10 passing yards per attempt. 

When Baylor establishes the running game, it opens up all sorts of vertical opportunities with the play action passing schemes. Baylor is 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 15-1 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed the ball for 5.0 to 5.5 yards per attempt. Moreover, they are a solid 14-3 ATS when they have scored 42 to 48 points in a game since 1992 and are 15-8 ATS over the past three seasons and 51-19 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points in a game.

Which way is capper Jordan Sharp looking when betting on this game's spread?

Supporting Play for the UNDER

With the NCAAF odds makers listing the total at 70 points, I think this reflects an extreme level of passionate public exuberance for the LAM team, who is fresh off a big time upset of Arkansas and lost to Auburn in overtime in their last game. I strongly believe that LAM will struggle offensively and as already mentioned they do not have the defensive personnel to contain the Baylor playmakers for four quarters.

Supporting the 10* UNDER play is a system that has produced a record of 68-34 for 67% winners since 2006. Play UNDER during the first four weeks of the month with any team against the total after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt last game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last season. Of the 102 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 52 of them or 52%, have gone UNDER the posted total by seven or more points.

Be sure to read another capper's take on betting the total tonight.

Game Situations

Even with the loss of RG3 to the Washington Redskins, the Baylor offense is off to a fast start ranking sixth nationally averaging 53.5 points per game. Moreover, they rank ninth averaging 352.5 passing yards per game and 24th averaging 226 rushing yards per game. Baylor has four wide receivers on their roster that have over 1000 career reception yards. It is simply too many elite athletes for LAM to cover consistently.

Baylor is riding an eight game winning streak ranking second longest in the nation. What is even more impressive is that their defense has forced at least one turnover in each of these games. Fine tuning this, since Phil Bennett has taken over the head coach position, Baylor is 10-0 when they have forced two or more turnovers. I think it is a near certainty that Baylor will force two or more turnovers tonight.

Free College Football Pick: Take the Baylor Bears.