These two teams have never faced each other on the college gridiron, and I believe that LA-Monroe will not want to schedule any more matchups against the Baylor Bears after tonight’s game is completed. Where should we make our college football picks in this game?
Simulator Projections and
20* graded college football pick on the Baylor
Bears as they take on Louisiana-Monroe (LAR) in a Friday night college football
game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The
simulator shows a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 10 or more
points. The simulator further projects That LAM will score between 22 and 28
points. In past games, where the Baylor defense has played solid defense they
are 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they allowed 22 to 28 points.
The game projections focus
squarely on the Baylor offense and the expectations that they will have a huge
night. The simulator projects that Baylor will gain more than nine passing
yards per pass attempt, will gain between 5.0 and 5.5 rushing yards per
attempt, will score between 42 and 48 points, and will gain more than 500 total
In past games, these offensive
outbursts have rewarded bettor very well. Baylor is a solid 11-5 ATS the past
three seasons and 29-12 ATS since 1992 when they have gained more than nine
passing yards per attempt. They are also 7-0 ATS since 1992 when they have
gained between 9.5 and 10 passing yards per attempt.
When Baylor establishes the
running game, it opens up all sorts of vertical opportunities with the play
action passing schemes. Baylor is 3-1 ATS the past three seasons and 15-1 ATS
since 1992 when they have rushed the ball for 5.0 to 5.5 yards per attempt.
Moreover, they are a solid 14-3 ATS when they have scored 42 to 48 points in a
game since 1992 and are 15-8 ATS over the past three seasons and 51-19 ATS
since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points in a game.
Which way is capper Jordan Sharp looking when betting on this game's spread?
Supporting Play for the UNDER
With the NCAAF odds makers listing the total at 70 points, I
think this reflects an extreme level of passionate public exuberance for the LAM
team, who is fresh off a big time upset of Arkansas and lost to Auburn in
overtime in their last game. I strongly believe that LAM will struggle
offensively and as already mentioned they do not have the defensive personnel
to contain the Baylor playmakers for four quarters.
Supporting the 10* UNDER play is
a system that has produced a record of 68-34 for 67% winners since 2006. Play
UNDER during the first four weeks of the month with any team against the total
after allowing eight or more passing yards per attempt last game and with eight
or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last season. Of the
102 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 52 of them or 52%, have
gone UNDER the posted total by seven or more points.
Be sure to read another capper's take on betting the total tonight.
Even with the loss of RG3 to the
Washington Redskins, the Baylor offense is off to a fast start ranking sixth
nationally averaging 53.5 points per game. Moreover, they rank ninth averaging
352.5 passing yards per game and 24th averaging 226 rushing yards per game.
Baylor has four wide receivers on their roster that have over 1000 career
reception yards. It is simply too many elite athletes for LAM to cover
Baylor is riding an eight game
winning streak ranking second longest in the nation. What is even more
impressive is that their defense has forced at least one turnover in each of
these games. Fine tuning this, since Phil Bennett has taken over the head coach
position, Baylor is 10-0 when they have forced two or more turnovers. I think
it is a near certainty that Baylor will force two or more turnovers tonight.
Free College Football Pick:
Take the Baylor Bears.