Todays article we'll take a look at a game that has major implications in the SEC South standings, between #6 LSU and #20 Texas A&M. We'll focus strictly on the total here, as we will have a pick out on the spread later in the week as well.
An LSU total of 52.5?
When was the last time you saw that in an SEC game? Not out
of conference, but an SEC game? We'll tell you when, last year against
Arkansas, December 25, which had a total of 53.5 and only went OVER because LSU
dropped 41 points while holding Arkansas to 17. Anyhow, the point is, you just
don't see this high of a total often in a SEC game involving LSU.
On the year the Tigers defense has been suffocating, giving
up just 219 yards per game total! They give up 3.9 yards per play and just
stuff opposing teams run games, limiting them to 89 yards a game for just 2.6
yards a carry.
Their passing defense is just as good, if not better.
Holding the opposition to just 130 yards through the air per game, limiting
quarterbacks to just a 50% completion rate, while averaging 3 sacks per game.
The Tigers have not given up more than 23 points all year long.
Les Miles will take the ball out of Zack Mettenbergers
There has been a lot of heat coming down on Zack for his
poor play and it almost got worse last week as he threw a pick 6 to USC, which
lead the Game Cocks to go into half time with a 7-3 lead. Luckily Mettenberger
was bailed out big time by the running game. As we mentioned in our opening
odds article, College Station is arguably one of the toughest and absolutely
without a doubt the loudest places to play in the country.
Les is not going to let this kid, who has proven to fold
under pressure like this, take any chances that could possibly hurt his team at
all. He will hand the ball off every down until they get into 3rd
and short. The stable of LSU backs are
racking up an average of 205 yards per game, for almost 5 yards a rush.
Meanwhile A&M is giving up over 130 yards on the ground so they will
certainly have their hands full. But, most shops only have #3 LSU as 3.5 point odds favorites.
Ride the UNDER
This is going to be a physical, hard hitting game that will
be decided in the trenches. Both teams are coming off huge emotional wins and
very well could come out flat the first half, having a huge effect on the
total. With the LSU defense stifling the Aggies offense and Les Miles looking
to pound the ball down A&Ms throat all game long, leading to the clock
winding down all game long, we just don’t see this one going over the posted
Picks: We recommend playing the UNDER 52.
Don't forget to go to our College Football Picks Page for all of our top NCAAF predictions.