College Football Picks: Michigan vs. Notre Dame Side Pick

Wolverines vs Fighting Irish free pick! Today let's look at this heavy hitting match-up as a side pick. Notre Dame's defense has been excellent, but it's secondary definitely has some holes. Can they hold back Denard Robinson?

I have already outlined my play taking the UNDER in a separate article released on Monday. This one will focus squarely on the side. This game is a great matchup of teams with decades of tradition and excellence, but neither has been in the hunt for a BCS bid in several season. Both teams are ranked in the Top-20 with Michigan ranked 18 and Notre Dame 11. The winners of this game will take a major step forward in proving they belong in the Top-15 and will gain more credibility as a BCS contender.

I strongly believe that Michigan is going to go into South Bend, Indiana, and not only cover the spread, but will also win the game. Michigan won 35-31 and covered as 3 ½ point dogs on September 10, 2011 as Wolverine quarterback Denard Robinson threw for 338 passing yards and four touchdowns. I believe you will see an even greater offensive performance by him in this game.

Notre Dame essentially has a new secondary, one that is largely inexperienced. They have redshirt freshman Farley starting at safety this week. He was recruited as an elite wide receiver, but has been asked to play safety after Slaughter sustained a season-ending Achilles injury in last week’s win over Michigan State. Farley’s first game will consist of defending and reacting to one of the most prolific run-pass players in the nation, Denard Robinson. There is no doubt that the Michigan offense is going to target the middle of the field and run plays exploiting where Farley is position pre-snap.

In fact, there are two more defensive starters that are converted offensive skill positions. Russell is a true freshman, who was recruited as a running back and Jackson is the other corner converted from wide receiver. These three inexperienced players are gifted athletes, but I cannot see them containing the Michigan offensive weapons, Gallon, Roy Roundtree, and Gardner at Wide Receiver.

The Notre Dame front seven will be focused on containing and collapsing the pocket around Robinson. There is no need to try and sack him with perimeter stunts as Robinson has the quickness and speed to elude any of the Notre Dame front seven. However, Notre Dame will do it’s best to keep Robinson still and not allow him to make plays on the move where he is at his absolute best.

Michigan will counter this successfully using rollouts and misdirection plays to get Robinson on the move and give him the choice of run or pass. This is where his read of the Farley will be critical. If Farley comes up to support run defense, then Robinson knows he will have man coverage on the perimeter. His best matchup in man coverage will be to Gallon. The pump and go double moves routes will work well against the Notre Dame secondary.

Game Situations Supporting Michigan

Notre Dame’s first two games have gone UNDER the posted total, but this is not good news for the Irish fans. Notre Dame is just 4-13 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive UNDERS since 1992. Moreover, Notre Dame is just 16-31 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Michigan head coach Hoke is a solid 24-9 ATS after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached since 1992; 13-4 ATS after playing two straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

One of the Best Money Line Dog Playing Systems

Supporting the upset big is a remarkable system that has gone just 53-87 for only 38% winners, but has made a whopping 81 units per one unit wagered since 2002. The average play has been a +316 dog and is the dominant reason this system has been so successful.

Play on road dogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread of 21 or more points total in their last three games with the game taking place in the first half of the season.

Take the Wolverines