Lets take a look back at the 2011-2012 season to see which teams were good to their backers this year. Who was the best pick against the spread, who was a reliable pick for betting the total, and how can we spot similar teams next season?
With the season now over, lets look at some of the college football betting trends to see if any patterns emerged where covering the spread and picking totals were concerned. Join us for our sports betting recap of our top college football picks on the year, and which teams were fade material all season long.
Against the spread
Teams can be classified into a few different categories as far as covering the spread was concerned; great teams that covered the spread, teams
that generated a lot of hype but were a good fade, football teams that
were awful and also terrible at covering the spread, and teams that were poor
but were a bettor's best friend
where covering the spread is concerned. Lets see who fits into each of these categories in the 2011-2012 football season.
Top teams covering the spread
When it came to siding with a top 25 team, the Stanford
Cardinal were the team to follow. The most likely (and already declared) number
1 pick of the 2012 NFL Draft Andrew Luck, brought bettors luck as the Cardinal were an
amazing 10-2 ATS to lead the way in the NCAA.
Houston Cougars quarterback Case
Keenum produced a lot of points (we'll talk about that with the totals) and
also produced a lot of wins ATS; 10 to be exact. Houston was 10-3 ATS. The
Crimson Tide of Alabama and LSU Tigers will either add an L or W to their ATS
records this season but both were a great bet all season as LSU was 10-3 and
Alabama was 8-4.
Other good notable teams who were good to bet on are
Oklahoma State (9-3), Kansas State (9-3), Michigan (8-4), USC (8-4), Baylor
(7-4), Clemson (8-5), and Georgia (8-5).
Too much Hype?
One team that always seems hyped up both here on SBR and in the public opinion are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska went a solid 9-3 in their inaugural
season in the Big Ten Conference but were just 4-7-1 ATS if you chose to back them.
I don't think that they were necessarily overhyped, but the
Penn State Nittany Lions were on the cover of every newspaper and were one of
the worst teams to bet on despite a 9-3 SU record. Penn State ranked 109th in the
country with a 3-8-1 mark ATS.
The Boise State Broncos are anther team that stood out as an overhyped group. Quarterback Kellen Moore and the Broncos had a great
season at 11-1, but they faced a weak schedule, enabling the odds makers to
make Boise huge favorites. This made it difficult for Boise State to cover the college football odds, going just 4-8 ATS.
A list of some of other respectable teams with "not so
good" ATS records are, Virginia Tech (4-9), Auburn (4-8), and the Notre
Dame Fighting Irish (5-7). This list wasn't too long as most of the favored teams
delivered to the bettor.
Poor teams unable to cover the spread.
Central Michigan and surprisingly Maryland take the cake as
two of the worst teams to choose from. I say "surprisingly Maryland"
due to the school’s reputation as a winning program.
Central Michigan was 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS, and I hope that you figured this trend out befor it was too late. The Maryland Terps program has taken a sharp decline
with a 2-10 SU record and was just 2-10 ATS, after once being a force in the ACC.
The Florida Gators also left bettors at a loss for words as they got off to a
6-0 start (SU) only to lose their next 6 games, finishing the season
with a 3-8-1 record ATS. UCONN managed to make a bowl game apperance last season, but since the departure of coach Randy Edsall, they've fallen
to 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS.
Multipule teams sat at the 3-9 mark: Syracuse (5-7) and
Texas A&M (6-6 SU) to name a couple.
Mississippi (2-10 SU), UNLV (2-10 SU), Colorado (2-10), and
Akron (1-11 SU) made no bones about it. They had awful seasons and performed
just as awfully ATS.
Poor teams that were a good bet
While not a frequent occourence, the odds makers did miss the boat
with some of the lower ranked teams who performed well against the spread. Despite a 5-7 SU record, San Jose State
was 8-4 ATS, while New Mexico State was just 4-9 straight up but a good cover at 8-5.
Overs
Robert Griffin III was good enough to win the Heisman
Trophy, to help his team earn a good ATS record, and also led to some high scoring
games. This gave Baylor a 9-1-1 mark concerning the over/under as they
averaged 43.5 points per game, making them one of the top over plays in the nation.
The high powered offenses off the Wisconsin Badgers (44.6
points per game) and the Oregon Ducks (46.2 points) also produced a lot of overs, as both teams hit the over in 9 out of 13 games.
There were some sub .500 teams with poor defenses that also pionted us in the direction of the over. Arizona allowed 35.4 points per game (-24.3), with the over
hit in 8 out of 12 of their games. UNLV played to a -23.2, allowing 40.4 points
per game and hit the over more than the under. Middle Tennessee State was a
sizzling 9-2-1 where the over was concerned. They were a -14.5 that allowed
36.8 points per game. Central Michigan was the worst team overall against the spread, but was a good bet to hit the over. They allowed 33.3 points per game which
enabled them to go 8-4 on the 'over'.
Unders
Basically, there was two scenarios when the under hit most
often, usually involving a top defense, or a top offence that led the oddsmakers to be a little demanding by setting the total too high.
Boston College Eagles were the clear-cut winner in this
category, as they hit the under in 10 out of 12 games with one push. The Eagles
were just 4-8 SU this season and weren't a high scoring team, but their "D" didn't allow a
great amount of points. Reputation could have also played a part, as this is a highly
recognized university that get's alot publicity.
Oklahoma State is a great example of a team that constantly had to face high totals. They averaged a whopping 49.3 points per game offensively, but only 4
out of their 12 games went over the total. Rutgers had a much improved season
at 8-4 and held their opponents to just 18.8 points per game. The Scarlett
Knights went under the total in 9 of their 12 games.
Temple was another school
that was similar to Rutgers. They did have a little more offense and went 8-4 SU, but their "D" held their opponents to just 13.8 points per game. This led to the Owls games
going under in 7 out of 12.
Louisville (3-8-1), Florida State (4-8), and Utah (4-8) all
had exceptional defenses which kept their games in the 'Under' to unders.
Penn State was a team that had a problem scoring and also
had a great defense. A sharp bettor would've picked up on this quickly and
collected, as the Nittany Lions were 2-9-1 where the under was concerned.
There was money to be made if you picked up on the
particular trends (especially in the Penn State total that I just mentioned and
Nebraska being overhyped as a team ATS). 2011-2012 was a great college football
season, and all we can do now is speculate on who will be our strongest over/under and ATS teams next season.
Keep checking back to SBR as we begin to preview next years season, and try to find any teams that might fit into any of these categories to help give you a leg up once the betting season rolls back around.