College Football Picks: Rutgers vs. Iowa State

By: | www.sbrforum.com
The Iowa State Cyclones ended their regular season with a 5-1 spread record in their final six games, with the ‘under’ also cashing at 5-1. Paul Rhoads takes his troops north for a Dec. 30 date in Yankee Stadium’s Pinstripe Bowl against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who cross the river after winning three of their last four contests.

Sportsbooks opened Rutgers as a two-point favorite, with early college football betting wagers on Iowa State dropping the number to 1 ½. College football odds makers first set the ‘total’ at 44 ½, remaining unchanged on most boards with some shops shading a ‘hook’ higher to 45. 

Cyclones cash as big dogs 

Iowa State’s latest cashed ticket came on Dec. 3, losing a 30-23 matchup as a 10-point road dog against the Kansas State Wildcats. The Cyclones never trailed by more than seven points, while being edged out thanks to a 26-yard touchdown run from Kansas State’s John Hubert with 3:29 remaining.

Iowa St. FootballCyclones running back Jeff Woody notched two touchdowns, making 23 carries for a season-high 85 yards. The sophomore’s mate Darius Reynolds caught four passes from quarterback Jared Barnett, who finished with 153 yards through the air. 

Iowa State’s defense gave up 201 rushing yards, while holding Kansas State to 4-of-12 third down conversions. Cyclones kick returner Aaron Horne averaged 24.9 YPR in seven runbacks, including one dash for 41 yards. 

The contest’s combined 53 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 50 ½. Iowa State controlled the ball for 31 minutes of possession, while being flagged for four penalties. 

Scarlet Knights end streak 

Rutgers saw a three-game win streak end in its regular-season finale on Nov. 26, dropping a 40-22 decision as a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Connecticut Huskies. The Scarlet Knights were held to 2-of-12 in their third down conversions, while logging a sizable six turnovers. 

Scarlet Knights wide out Brandon Coleman caught six passes for 223 yards and a pair of touchdowns from quarterback Gary Nova, who completed 11-of-18 strikes. Nova relieved starter Chas Dodd, with the duo uniting for 439 passing yards. 

Rutgers’ defense gave up all four of Connecticut’s touchdowns on the ground, allowing 178 rushing yards. Greg Schiano’s squad recovered one late Huskies fumble, while holding UConn to 6.6 YPP in its 17 passing attempts. 

The battle’s combined 62 points soared above its ‘total’ of 40 ½, ending a 3-0 ‘under’ streak from the Scarlet Knights’ prior three games. Rutgers failed to reach the postseason last year, while winning four straight bowl games in the span of 2006-2009. 

Back the ‘under’ in the Bronx 

The Pinstripe Bowl is slated for a 3:20 p.m. (ET) kickoff, with ESPN providing the national television coverage. Last year’s inaugural edition saw the Syracuse Orange edge out Kansas State, 36-34. 

This handicapper expects a lower-octane duel this time around, backing the ‘under' with my college football pick. The ‘under’ is 7-2 in Rutgers’ last nine games, while cashing at 5-2 in Iowa State’s last seven non-conference affairs. 

Rutgers played one of its games this season in Yankee Stadium, logging a 27-12 win against Army. The matchup’s combined 39 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 47 ½, with one of the Scarlet Knights’ touchdowns coming from a blocked punt runback. 

The Scarlet Knights victory capped off a four-game run of allowing a stingy 17 PPG away from home. Look for Rutgers to make adjustments from its setback in Connecticut following that stretch, coming out tighter in the Bronx. 

Iowa State’s sole trip to the northeast took place back in September, recording a 24-20 win at UConn. The close contest ducked ‘under’ the ‘total’ of 44 ½ by a ‘hook,’ with both squads held to a combined 11-for-34 in third down conversions. 

The Cyclones rank eighth out of the Big 12 Conference’s 10 teams in total yards (392.8 YPG), while placing a more meager ninth in scoring (23.5 PPG). Iowa State’s last postseason appearance came two seasons ago in 2009’s Insight Bowl, with a tight 14-13 win against the Minnesota Golden Gophers plunging ‘under’ the 48 ½-point ‘total.’

Look for the ‘total’ to rise a bit more in the next week as with most bowl games, and grab the ‘under’ at 45 ½. The potential jump through the “45” is worth waiting for as the SBR Half-Point Calculator lists the key number with a sizable 3.4 percent chance of being fallen onto.

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