into the thick of October in the NCAAF season, which means
conference games are running heavy. Just as with the NFL each week, we look at the latest college football odds to see which games we should avoid with our college football picks.
Everyone is happy at college station because the Texas
A&M Aggies are doing pretty well in Kevin Sumlin’s first season as head
coach. The Aggies have moved into the SEC and are 5-1 (2-1) so far, which has
them ranked in the Top 25.
Sorry to burst the bubble, but this is a team that I
would avoid right now.
On one hand, the Aggies have looked far better than
expected. They should have beaten the Florida Gators, who are now the
second-ranked team in the country, and they have quality wins over Louisiana
Tech and Ole Miss. The trouble is that their defense isn’t SEC-worthy and their
offense hasn’t really been challenged much.
The Aggies aren’t disciplined, as evidenced by their 19
penalties for 165 yards last week. Their defense is questionable, as evidenced
by the 57 points they gave up to the Bulldogs last week. The offense is good, but Florida held them to 17 points and they haven’t faced anyone good otherwise.
The Aggies had to come back from 10 down to beat Ole
Miss. They also had to hang on for dear life against the Bulldogs. Yes, this
team has won five straight, but they are going to get roughed up in SEC play,
which could happen as early as this week.
Don’t Touch: Texas
Texas Tech had an impressive win over West Virginia, but
let’s not go overboard. After all, we are talking about a mid-rate Big 12
program that’s probably overrated being ranked in the Top 25.
Looking back over Texas Tech’s body of work this season,
you’ll notice that they’ve played nobody impressive other than West Virginia
and Oklahoma. While they handled the Mountaineers, they were throttled 41-20 by
Oklahoma at home. Their other wins have come against Northwestern State, Texas State,
New Mexico and Iowa State.
Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are a bit of a conundrum
themselves. They’ve proven to be vulnerable without quarterback Casey Pachal, and we don’t know what they’ll get from them going forward. Their defense is
supposedly stellar but has given up 58 points over the last two weeks.
I wouldn’t lay points with the Red Raiders on the road
here. They’re off a big win and could be in line for a big wakeup call. I also
wouldn’t take the points with TCU because I don’t know if they’re good enough
to upset the Red Raiders. Stay away from this game.
Don’t Touch: North
On paper, one would like to lay pay with North Carolina
State – a team that beat Florida State two weeks ago – with peace of mind
knowing that they should handle a hapless Maryland team after a bye week. However,
the Wolfpack have done very little that has been expected of them this season,
so I’ll avoid them in this spot as well.
The Wolfpack are not a team that wins many big games, so
I’m not sure how they’ll respond as a road favorite. Sportsbooks like Bovada
and 5Dimes opened the lines with them favored by five and people are betting
Maryland has won two
straight and is gaining a little bit of momentum. One would like to think that
NC State is the better team but they also lost on the road in Miami and were
run off the field by Tennessee. These two teams are far more evenly matched
than some might think. Stay away.