Florida State meets the Clemson Tigers in an ACC Football battle.
FSU played a very tough home game against Oklahoma in one of the
hardest hitting games I have seen in years. Clemson is coming off a huge come
behind win against Auburn, which ended the nations longest wining streak at 17
games. What should we expect as these two ACC football powerhouses meet?
College football odds boards opened with Florida State as a small 3 point favorite, and early NCAAF betting action has moved that number to 2 at most sportsbooks. The total has been set at 50 points. My simulator shows a
high probability that FSU will win this game by a minimum of four points.
Although FSU lost at home to No. 1 Oklahoma they did play quite
well. They suffered through numerous key injuries including one to starting
quarterback E.J. Manuel. Most teams would have folded the tent, but FSU showed
the heart of a contender and continued to play hard with red shirt freshman
Clint Trickett under center. The Seminoles are back and they are a team that
looks like they need just another year of experience and will be a BCS
contender in 2012 season.
Manuel wanted to come back into the game, but the trainers and
coaches did the right thing for him and his future. He is being examined by a
specialist today. The good news is it is non-throwing shoulder, but it could be
a few days or even a few weeks until he is back under center.
This type of
injury can affect the throwing motion and not permit proper hip and shoulder
rotation because of the pain it generates.
Other injuries to FSU hit their elite wide receiver corp with
sophomore Scooter Haggins requiring surgery to repair a broken left hand. he
was the second leading receiver on the team with 11 catches. Their other two
elite pass catchers will play in my opinion.
Bert Reed did not play in the
Oklahoma game due to an ankle sprain suffered in the Charleston Southern game.
Kenny Shaw took that incredibly scary hit in the Sooner game was taken to a
hospital and then was seen walking on the sidelines cheering his teammates on
in the fourth quarter.
So, FSU is banged up, but they are a deep team and I am not
worried in the least about their passing game with either Manuel or Trickett
Clemson is coming off an emotional win and one that can easily
lead to a letdown even though they are facing another stronger team in FSU.
They were down 21-7 at one point in the game and it took a ton of energy to
come back get the upset win. However, it is now fact that the Auburn Tigers arguably have one of the worst defensive secondaries in the SEC. It is also fact that FSU did
a monumental job of holding Oklahoma to just 23 points with just 10 coming in
the second half.
With 9:32 left Trickett hit Rashad Greene for a 56 yard catch and
run touchdown that tied the game at 13-13. The FSU defense held Oklahoma
scoreless during a 23 minute span before yielding a 37 yard touchdown pass from
Landry to Jones. The FSU defense is
vastly superior to that of Auburn's edition and I strongly believe that Clemson
will have a very tough time scoring points in this game.
The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will score 28 or
more points in this game. In past games where this level of performance
occurred FSU is a solid
100-50 ATS making 45.0 units per one unit played when they score 28 or more
points since 1992.
Moreover, Clemson is just 13-46 ATS losing 37.6 units per
one unit played when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Also noteworthy
is the fact they Clemson is just 8-23 ATS losing 17.3 units per one unit played
when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1992.
My Pick: Take Florida State