The week's Friday night college football action pits the Hawaii Warriors against the San Jose State Spartans. Sportsbook odds makers have set Hawaii as the -6 favorites, but will we find better value as the week goes on?
College football odds makers opened this line exactally where I expected them to, and so far the early NCAAF betting action is two-way with nearly
equal number of bets on both teams. Present numbers I am looking at show 53% of
all bets being made on Hawaii and 47% on the home dog San Jose State. I don’t
see this spread dropping much before Friday night and if anything I do believe
the lines maker has this game pegged very well.
As a reminder,
the sportsbook lines maker did not make this based on a prediction for the outcome of the
game. He made this line based on the level where he expects the action to be
equal. They do not care who wins the game, he only cares about establishing
a static line that does not need to be adjusted up or down to react to the
that you see large line movements of three or more points are a books nightmare
as the probability of getting ‘middled’ increase proportionally to the line
movement. The early bettors, who got the low price can then ‘buy back’ the game
at the higher price and have to pay only the ‘vig’ if the game does not get
can bet early and make the line move and this in turn attracts the smaller
bettors, who get caught up the line action. Once the public gets ‘all in’ then
the large players, or sharks as they are commonly called, can buy back the game
or a portion of the game and still have a decent size bet if their initial play
wins or the big return if the game gets ‘middled’.
State is coming off a 1-2 2010 seasons and went 0-8 in the WAC. They had seven
offensive starters return, but had a significant battle for the quarterback
position. The coaches decided on Senior Matt Faulkner, who is a bit undersized
at 6-1 204 pounds, but has above average arm strength.
He did well
against BYU in their last game hitting 25 of 35 pass attempts for 71.4%
completions and 255 yards. For the season he has connected on 98 of 156 pass
attempts fop 63% completions and a decent 126.4 quarterback passer rating.
Jose State ranks 79th gaining 213.5 passing yards, 71st
gaining 134.0 rushing yards per game, 99th scoring just 20.3
points-per-game, and 92nd allowing 30.8 points-per game. The inability
of the offense to stay on the field and give the defense rest is a large reason
why the defense has been shredded in games this season.
Hawaii is off
to another strong offensive season with a pass happy offensive scheme. Their
quarterback Moniz already has 15 touchdowns and has connected on 135 of his 209
pass attempts for 1578 yards. He, like his counterpart is a bit undersized at
6-1 and 200 pounds, but has above average arm strength. His quarterback rating
for the season is 150.7 and a bit weaker in road tilts at 138.3.
eight gaining 343.4 yards passing, 110th gaining just 87.0 rushing
yards per game, 25th averaging 37.2 points per game, and 69th
allowing 27.4 points per game.
In summary, I think the
line could drift to Hawaii favored by six points where strong betting support
will arise. The ‘common sense’ bet is to make Hawaii at this point, but we will
be back later tomorrow with a look at the total play opportunities for this
game to give you more options for your college football picks Friday night.
Share your plays and thoughts on this game in my Hawaii vs. San Jose State thread in SBR's forum.
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