The Armed Forces Bowl pits the great passing game of Houston with the powerful running of Air Force, and with this game being played in the state of Texas, we look for Houston to prevail. Cougars quarterback Case Keenum had a sensational year with 42 TD tosses vs. 10 picks, and he should lead Houston to a quick, comfortable lead this afternoon. That would make it difficult for a team of Air Force’s style to come back.
The Armed Forces Bowl features a sharp contrast of styles, pitting the pass-happy Houston Cougars vs. the ground-heavy Air Force Falcons.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]We already saw how one pass-oriented Conference USA team did playing in its own state last night, when Rice routed Western Michigan in Houston, and we see a similar result here with Houston playing in Fort Worth.
The Cougars averaged a whopping 41.2 points and 575.8 yards per game this season, with 413,5 of those yards coming through the air. Amazingly, Case Keenum completed 67.3 percent of his passes, which is exceptional when you consider how many times Houston throws the ball.
Keenum threw for over 4700 yards and a fantastic 42 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions. It sure helps that he and the Cougars will have most of the crowd support, as Houston was 5-0 at home with an average winning margin of +30.0 points.
Now Air Force went 8-4 on the strength of a powerful running game that averaged 268.8 rushing yards per game. This is fine as long as the Falcons have the lead or the game is close, but their pathetic passing game (79.9 yards per game) limits them severely if they need to come from behind.
We feel that will be exactly the case here, as the Houston passing game has already been successful vs. stronger defenses than Air Force possesses. As if that is not bad enough, the Houston defense has been better against the run than the pass, and this should be especially true here as they can stiff the box without fear of the Falcons passing game.
We see Houston building a comfortable lead and then never looking back this afternoon.
Free Pick: Houston -3½ (-110)