The Hoosiers are just a couple of plays away from being 6-2 this season, and Indiana will prove a tougher test for Iowa on Saturday than the oddsmakers think.
Sports handicapping does not give us a chance to talk about “Lithopanes” much, but that is a great way to set this one up.
Porcelain is a translucent substance, although many would not realize that. Because high quality porcelain allows for delicate work, we can often look at something that shows a clearly defined image in a certain light, and yet when the light is adjusted something entirely different appears. Think of an exquisite ancient Chinese tea cup, in which one might not even notice the bottom at all until the last sips have been taken, and it is held in a manner in which light showcases a unique image. And that is Iowa.
Yes, the Hawkeyes are undefeated, ranked in the Top 10 and getting all sorts of BCS mention. As such the Hawkeyes appear to be a “player” in the eyes of the marketplace, and the oddsmakers are forced to adjust. But hold them to the light and what do we find? How about a well-coached team that is merely good, and not great, and while they bring the qualities of solid fundamentals and discipline under Kirk Ferentz that gives them edges late in close games, that does not correlate at all to generating big margins against weaker competition.
So what is the real Iowa image? An 8-0 opening that has been keyed by four wins of three points or less, two being home games vs. the likes of Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, and another win in which they trailed Penn State in the fourth quarter until a barrage of turnovers transfixed the scoreboard. Iowa is 91st in the nation in rushing, 69th in passing efficiency, 87th in total offense, 69th in sacks allowed and 86th in scoring. That kind of offense does not make it easy to get margins, but what happens if they are not even as good as those numbers? That is the case this week.
As pedestrian as the offense has been, there have been major contributions from Dace Richardson up front, and the running of Adam Robinson (a team-leading 629 yards, and off of back-to-back games of over 100). Richardson is gone for the remainder of the season and Robinson may be as well. The Robinson injury compounds season-long problems that have seen three of the top five Iowa RB’s lost to injury, leaving precious little talent or experience at the position, with the best current option FR Brandon Wegher, who has only averaged 3.7 per carry on his 87 attempts.
Ferentz summed it up well. "Our margin for error is pretty slim anyway. Now it just got a little bit slimmer because we just lost two good starting players from our team."
Not only are the Hawkeyes being overrated based on their abilities, but they also start carrying a major target on their backs, and we believe that helps Indiana here. At another time the bitter 29-28 defeat the Hoosiers suffered at Northwestern last week (they led 28-3 in the second quarter) could have been a back-breaker. But now they get a cathartic target to aim at, on the very same week in which it has been announced that Bill Lynch will be kept through the remainder of his contract, and instead of being down we expect to find an underdog that brings plenty of hunger. It helps that they can also play.
The Hoosiers are just a bounce away in those close losses vs. Michigan and Northwestern from being 6-2, with an offense that takes good care of the ball (only nine turnovers in seven lined games), buoyed by the return to health of Pete Saxon up front and top RB Darius Willis, and a veteran defense with playmakers up front in Greg Middleton and Jamie Kirlew (they are 26th in the nation in tackles for loss, a rarity from this program) that will keep things interesting in the trenches.
Look for Ferentz to put a focus on doing what the Hawkeyes do best – try to play smart and grind away, without taking the kind of risks needed to make big plays. That keeps this one firmly under a spread that has been set way too high.
Free Pick: Indiana +17½ (-110)