Look for Alabama's tenure as No. 1 in the BCS to last just a week. LSU has s huge home field advantage and that makes the Tigers plus the points the play vs. the Tide.
Alabama may be the No. 1 ranked team in the polls and the BCS standings, but the Crimson Tide are not the top team in the nation.
'Bama has a very strong defense that has allowed just 4.2 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team), but that unit is not that much better than an LSU attack that is 1.1 yppl better than average with Jerrett Lee at quarterback (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl against an average team). Lee’s problem has been interceptions (10 on just 189 pass attempts). Alabama also has only a very slight edge on LSU when the Tide have the ball, as Bama rates at 0.6 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and the Tigers are 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team).
Alabama does have a 3-point edge in projected turnovers, but the Tigers are better on special teams and are at home. My math model favors LSU by 1½ points and Alabama applies to a negative 16-59-1 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams. My problem with this game is LSU’s 0-12 ATS mark in conference home games following a victory under coach Les Miles, but I’ll still favor LSU plus the points based on the math and the situation going against Alabama.
Prediction: LSU-24 Alabama-23
Free Pick: LSU +3 (-110)