Northwestern will be without thair star running back and starting quarterback, and that gives Minnesota a big edge. Go with the Golden Gophers at home vs. the Wildcats.
Northwestern is without star running back Tyrell Sutton, who is out for the season, and quarterback C.J. Bacher, and that does not bode well for the Wildcats.
Sutton has accumulated 776 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr and the rushing numbers will fall with Omar Conteh (223 at just 3.7 ypr) taking his place. Replacing Bacher is Mike Kafka, who was the starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2006 season before being replaced. Kafka was horrible throwing the ball that season, averaging just 4.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback, but he’s run for 326 yards on 48 rushing plays (6.8 yprp) in his career and should enhance the rushing numbers (but the net of losing Sutton and adding Kafka’s numbers is negative).
My math model favors Minnesota by 9½ points in this game and the 138-69-8 ATS situation that applies to the Golden Gophers is stronger than the 47-22 ATS situation that applies to Northwestern. I like Minnesota in this game.
Prediction: Gophers-28 Wildcats-17
Free Pick: Minnesota -7 (-110)
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