Nevada QB Nick Graziano has been a quick study with the new 'Pistol Offense.' Back the Wolf Pack at home this afternoon when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Fresno State was the class program of the WAC for a good portion of Pat Hill’s 11-year tenure as head coach. With #1 overall draft pick David Carr at quarterback, the Bulldogs were a tough out against just about everybody. During a five year span between 2000 and 2004, Fresno won outright against Colorado, Wisconsin, Oregon St, Kansas St and Washington, while hanging well within the spread in games against Oregon, Tennessee, Oklahoma and UCLA.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]In November of 2005, Fresno was 8-1 (the lone loss coming by three points at Oregon), and leading at #1 USC in the fourth quarter. But the Bulldogs blew the fourth quarter lead against the Trojans, and frankly, the program hasn’t been the same since that defeat. Fresno went on to lose their remaining three games of the ’05 season (favored by a combined 45 points in those three games).
Last year, the Bulldogs went 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS. So far this season, Fresno has a win over I-AA Sacramento State and a particularly unimpressive win over lowly Louisiana Tech (both victories coming at home) to show for the first month of the season.
The Bulldogs have never been able to replace Carr at the QB position. Paul Pinegar had his moments, but he certainly wasn’t an elite level, NFL bound quarterback. Current starter Tom Brandstater is even worse than Pinegar was. Last week, Brandstater’s stat line looked like this: 8-22, 92 yards, 0 touchdowns. Tight end Bear Pascoe has been Brandstater’s only consistent receiving threat. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller combine to average less than four yards per carry. A defense with only four returning starters has struggled mightily against both solid attacks that they’ve faced this year. And let’s not forget that Fresno St is on a 1-9 SU run on the road, not the type of team worth backing in this price range in a hostile environment.
And it’s surely worth noting that the Bulldogs have lost the turnover battle in each of their first four games, another indicator that the quarterback play here isn’t quite up to par.
Nevada is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite in this current epoch of the Chris Ault era, as apart of a 17-3 overall home record in the last 3+ seasons. Reno is no easy place for opposing teams to visit these days. Since an opening day loss at Nebraska, the Wolfpack offense has been clicking on all cylinders, putting up 110 points in three games, while averaging more than 200 yards per game both on the ground and through the air.
While Nevada QB Nick Graziano is still learning the intricacies of Ault’s unique 'Pistol offense,' he’s certainly got a big arm and plenty of playmakers to throw to. In fact, the Wolfpack have five different receivers that have caught a TD pass of 48 yards or longer, while running back Luke Lippincott is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Given Nevada’s track record at home, and Fresno’s limited offensive capabilities, look for the Wolfpack to extend their streak to 13 consecutive pointspread covers as a home favorite on Saturday.
Free Pick: Nevada -3 (-110)