Notre Dame fans might be riding high after the Fighting Irish have opened the year 2-0, but with a weekend date with Michigan State looming on the horizion, a blemish on the perfect record could be in the books. Can the Irish cover as a 6 point dog over the favored Spartans?
Notre Dame is off to a 2-0 start
and already there are talks that they are possibly a contending team for a BCS
berth. Nowhere else in the world of college football can warped assessments and
extrapolations exist than with Golden Domer nation.
To start with, these fans must
realize that Notre Dame is traveling to a strong opponent in Michigan State
this Saturday, and the schedule does not get any easier moving forward. Notre
Dame has defeated Navy and Purdue so far, and that is hardly a BCS resume.
Moreover, the Spartans are the 10th ranked team in the nation and are vastly
better on both sides of the ball than Notre Dame.
Michigan State and the Projections
5* graded play on No. 10 Michigan
State as they take on No. 19 Notre Dame set to start at 8:00 PM ET on
prime-time NBC TV, Saturday, September 15, 2012.
The College football odds makers had initially opened the Spartans as 4 point favorites, but early betting action has since extended the spread to 6 points. My simulator shows a high probability that the Spartans will win this game by six or more points, which given the current spread, would equal a Michigan State cover.
My projections further show that the
Spartans will score 28 or more points, will gain between 7.5 and 8.0 passing
yards per attempt, will rush the ball for 100 to 150 yards, and will outgain
the Irish by an average of 0.5 to 1.0 yards per play. In past games, this has
not been good news on the scoreboard for Notre Dame. They are 0-4 ATS over the
past three seasons and 15-34 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28
points in a game; 2-7 ATS the past three seasons and 12-57 ATS when they have
allowed more than 28 points in a game; 1-2 ATS the past three season, and 4-15
ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 7.5 to 8.0 passing yards per attempt;
18-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 100 to 150 rushing yards; and 7-17
ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 0.5 to 1.0 yards per play in
The Irish may be 2-0, but they have
also accumulated a large number of injuries on their roster. Starting with
quarterback Everett Golson, who has a hand injury, is expected to play. The
good news though is that running back Cierre Wood has completed his two-game
suspension and is listed as probable for this game as well.
Supporting Money Line System
Supporting my college football
picks is a system that has produced a record of 26-3 for 90% winners using the
money line since 2006. Play on home teams using the money line that had a solid
rushing defense from last season that allowed 125 or less rushing yards per
game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game.
Here is a second supporting money
line system that has gone 38-12 for 76% winners since 2002. Play on a home team
using the money line that are solid rushing defenses from last season allowed
125 or less rushing yards per game and returning an inexperienced quarterback
and five or less offensive starters with the game taking place in the first
month of the season.
Current Money Lines are opening
at -200, which is normal given the point spread installed as Spartans favored
by five points. I think laying 2:1 is an exceptional opportunity for this game
for money line players.
Michigan State is in a series of
solid game situations that serve to reinforce the high probability of them
winning this game easily ATS. The Spartans are a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing
125 or less rushing yards in two straight games spanning the last two seasons;
7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in games played
spanning the last three seasons; 10-2 ATS after allowing 275 or less total
yards in two consecutive games since 1992.
Spartans head coach Dan Tonio is
a solid 12-2 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight
games. Plus, he is 11-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
as the head coach of the Spartans. This underscores the aforementioned team
trend and it is being that he has been the head coach during this run validates
the present trend.
College Football Pick: Michigan State -6
Update on the Total
Let’s take a closer look at the
total for this game and the resulting opportunity to make a winning wager on
the total. The line opened at 43 -110 and the OVER has been the dominant bet,
which has subsequently moved the line to 44 -110 at some shops.
At this point 64% of the bets
being made have been on the OVER. I have learned that irrational exuberance
types of betting extremes occur when 75% or more of the bets are the same side.
So, although 64$ is significant, it is not quite to the frenzy that i like to
see when considering to fade the public and side with the book. This
measurement of betting flows serves only to reinforce a graded play from my
simulator and is not the sole reason ever for placing a bet.
I like the UNDER in this game.
One of the dominant reasons has to do with Notre Dame’s offensive scheme for
this game. In their first week, they had a significant advantage running the
ball against a vastly smaller Navy defensive front. In last week’s win over
Purdue, the offensive scheme started the game throwing a high percentage of the
time, whcih was effective until Purdue made the defensive adjustments.
What I saw in that game is that Notre Dame
quarterback Golson has the ability to extend the play, but his accuracy,
especially beyond 15 yards was far below average at this level of football. He
will be facing a MSU defensive unit with far more athleticism, speed, and
quickness, than any opponent faced to date. Golson appeared uncertain in many
situations against Purdue and he does not execute better in this game, the MSU
defense will make it very difficult for Notre Dame to move the chains and get
into the red zone for scoring opportunities.