Defense has come through more often than offense in recent bowl games, and that should be the case today when Marshall and Ohio meet at the Little Caesars Bowl in Detroit.
The Little Caesars Pizza Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit features the Marshall Thundering Herd and the Bobcats from Ohio University.
Ohio enters the bowl game having put together a 9-4 SU record this season while the Herd was able to sneak in with a 6-6 SU record. We actually used Marshall a few times this season as a late phone selection and they came through for us.
Marshall has our #96 ranked offense averaging 22 points per game and 355 yards of total offense per game this season. The Herd's defense ranks #72 on our TPR Index allowing 25 points per game and 392 yards per game.
Ohio has our #106 ranked offense averaging 25 points per game and 325 yards of total offense. The Bobcats defense is ranked #61 allowing 21 points per game and 354 yards of offense. The Bobcats lead the NCAA with 36 takeaways on the year which has certainly helped them garner those nine victories.
Our interest in this game is on the total and we know that seven of the last 10 in this game, dating to when it was the Motor City Bowl, have gone ‘under’ the posted total.
Over the last two seasons bowl games in general have trended to the ‘under’ with 36 of 66 falling below the posted total for 55 percent winners when taking the under. Last season we saw 21 of 34 bowl games go ‘under’ the total. Games that were expected to be high-scoring affairs – totals posted at 51 or higher – went 6-16 to the ‘under.’
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A check of the database reveals a system that is active and tells us to play the ‘under’ in bowl games when non-conference teams from a second-tier division face off as these contests have gone ‘under’ at a rate of 8-34 the last 10 seasons for 81 percent winners.
When C-USA teams face off versus Mountain West Conference foes in bowl games the ‘under’ is 11-19 for 63 percent winners.
We expect this game to fall well below the posted total so play ‘under’ in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl on Saturday. The current total is 49½ and our TPR Index Projection for this game has total points scored 45 points between Marshall and Ohio University.
Free Pick: Marshall-Ohio Under 49½ (-110)