Oklahoma State vs. Stanford: College Football Pick

Sportsbooks opened Oklahoma State as a 3 ½-point favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 76.  Early college football betting action on the Cowboys and ‘under’ moved the numbers to four and 74, respectively.

Cowboys defense tightens up 

Oklahoma State was known for its high-octane scoring most of the year, while its last three games showcased the team’s defense holding foes to a stingy 17.7 PPG.  The span included an upset loss to the Iowa State Cyclones, who notched two touchdowns in overtime for a 37-31 win as 26 ½-point home dogs after being held to 24 points in the duel’s first four quarters. 

The Oklahoma State Cowboys bounced back in this month’s finale with a 44-10 triumph as a 3 ½-point home favorite against the Oklahoma Sooners.  Running backs Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith each reached the end zone twice, while uniting for 270 rushing yards. 

Oklahoma State returns to the postseason after last year’s 36-10 win in the Alamo Bowl as 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ against the Arizona Wildcats.  Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for 240 yards, while ‘under’ backers cashed with the battle’s combined 46 points plunging below the ‘total’ of 68 ½. 

Cardinal scoring slides south 

Stanford began the year putting up 49.5 PPG in its first eight games, while the stretch of its final four affairs saw Andrew Luck and Co. cool to 31.2 PPG.  The Cardinal cashed at 10-2 ATS over the season’s span, favored by the oddsmakers in every matchup by an average of 17 points. 

Luck led the Pacific-12 Conference’s quarterbacks with a 167.5 passer rating.  The two-time Heisman Trophy runner up notched 265.4 YPG through the air, while tossing 35 touchdowns. 

Stanford’s defense often fails to get attention with Luck in the spotlight, quietly having some of the conference’s best talent on that side of the ball.  Cardinal senior Chase Thomas logged 8 ½ sacks, making him second in the Pacific-12 behind USC’s Nick Perry (9 ½). 

The Cardinal ended their regular season with last month’s 28-14 win as a seven-point home favorite against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Luck threw for all four of his squad’s touchdowns, while Cardinal safety Michael Thomas snagged his third interception of the season. 

Back the ‘under’ in Glendale 

Monday’s kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET), with ESPN providing the national television coverage. 

This handicapper agrees with the early ‘steam’ in backing the ‘under’ in college bowl picks, looking for the defense of both squads to continue their late-season momentum.  The ‘under’ is 2-1 in the last three years of Fiesta Bowl matchups, with foes combining for an average of 46.7 PPG. 

A high ‘total’ is an indication of some towering points to arrive come game time, but look no further than last year’s BCS Championship Game in Glendale to know the octane does not always fire.  Auburn’s 22-19 victory against Oregon gave ‘under’ backers no sweat with a ‘total’ of 73 ½, despite a combined 968 yards from both squads. 

Oklahoma State has met challenges from its share of high-profile offenses, allowing a stingy 24 points from the Baylor Bears in an Oct. 29 matchup.  The Cowboys held the Bears to 7-for-18 in third-down conversions, while Baylor went on to finish second in the nation behind the Houston Cougars in total yards gained (571.3 YPG). 

Stanford’s sole defeat of the year came on Nov. 12 in a 53-30 spanking from the Oregon Ducks.  While the final score had the Cardinal surrendering an abundance of points from the nation’s third-highest scoring team (46.2 PPG), the Ducks were held to 1-for-9 in third-down conversions.  Oregon was also helped by Stanford’s unforeseen five turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.   

The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Stanford’s last five non-conference games, while going 5-1 in Oklahoma State’s last six contests on grass.  Look for ‘under’ backers to get the money again here, while the rest of the betting public starts out their new year on the minus side.