The Kansas State Wildcats may be ranked higher than the Oklahoma Sooners in the eyes of the BCS, but it hasn't stopped sportsbooks from opening them as a 14 point home dog this weekend. Lets break down these opening lines in more detail.
This is a
very important game for both teams, as it will play a key role in deciding which bowl game these two teams will end up playing. Oklahoma is coming off of a the shocking
loss to Texas Tech in a home game where the college football odds had them favored by a whopping 29
points. Determining how the Sooners will respond in the wake of that
devastating loss will go a long way in determining if they can cover the big road
number listed at the sportsbooks.
The college football betting lines opened up with Oklahoma at -13 ½ and has been steady at 13 ½ and 14 points at the
ten sportsbooks I monitor. So far, 58% of bets made are backing the home dog,
which is not surprising given Kansas State’s huge blowout win over Kansas
coupled with the Sooners' debacle.
I think this line will settle at 13 ½ points
come game time, so there is not much ‘trading’ room in which to work strong numbers. If you
do like Kansas State I think it is possible to get 14 ½ at some point during
No. 9 be favored over No. 8?
few occasions when a higher ranked team is installed as a double digit home dog
to a lower ranked team in college football. This certainly reflects the
inherent flaws in the BCS rankings or any of the polls. Yet, at the end of day
when it matters most the BCS has done a solid job getting the best two teams to
play for the BCS National Championship.
The Oklahoma Sooners are still one of the best teams in the nation despite the loss to Texas Tech. The
Sooners rank fourth in the FBS national standings gaining 379.0 passing yards
per game, 52nd gaining 166.6 rushing yards per game, seventh scoring
44.3 points per game, and 22nd allowing 19.4 points per game.
All losses count, but if you attribute last week’s loss as an
anomaly, the Sooners are a complete team on both sides of the ball.
has an offense that has been designed around the running game first. They rank 110th
in the FBS gaining 140.9 passing yards per game, 19th gaining 213.9
rushing yards per game, 34th scoring 33.6 points per game, and 23rd
allowing 19.7 points per game.
defense has a tremendous, if not overwhelming, advantage against the Wildcats
offensive unit. The Sooners have elite speed and quickness as they swarm to
the ball. The fact that the Wildcats are a one dimensional team only makes things
easier for the Sooner defense to execute all sorts of seven and eight men in
the box looks, attacks to the ‘A’ gap, and allows them to use zone gap blitz’es off the perimeter.
Kansas State ranks eighth in the country, they could not matchup with another team any worse
than they do against the Sooners.
The Sooners' offense is led by Junior quarterback Landry Jones (6-4 229). He had a so-called
‘off’ game agains Texas Tech throwing for 412 yards, completing 30-of-55 pass
attempts for 55% completing, five touchdowns and just one interception. For the
season, he has completed 201-of-308 pass attempts for 2,589 yards, 65%
completions, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
don’t see Kansas State getting the job done defensively is in first down situations. To
stop or even contain a powerful offense the defense must get a stop on
first down and create second and third-and-long situations. Jones excels on
first down and has completed 72% of his 130 pass attempts and has attained an amazing 179 passer rating. Kansas State will not be able to get Oklahoma
into second/third and long situations, allowing Jones to use play action on second and short plays.
The Wildcats will
have a raucous home crowd to support them at the start of this game, but I
fully expect the Sooners to fire out with a big effort in the first possessions
of the game and look to score touchdowns early and take the crowd out of the
game. Once that happens the potential for a blowout win become increasingly
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