Both Virginia Tech and Cincinnati are limited offensively and both rely heavily on their defenses. Well, the Hokies have the better defensive numbers, allowing 17.5 points and just 277 total yards per game, and they have done this vs. a tougher schedule than the Bearcats have faced. When you add in that the ACC was 12-3-1 ATS as bowl underdogs the last five years and is 2-0 in that role this week, the Hokies are an easy call.
The Cincinnati Bearcats went a surprising 11-2 this season, but keep in mind that they play in the weak Big East, and we look for the more experienced Virginia Tech Hokies to prevail here.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Virginia Tech usually likes to win ugly, and this year was no exception. Still, they did finish at 9-4, thanks to a defense that was among the best in the nation allowing just 17.5 points and 277.2 total yards per game. We expect their defensive unit to have success here vs. a Cincinnati offense that keeps shuffling its quarterbacks, as Dustin Grutza and Tony Pike are expected to split time here.
Compounding the problems for the Bearcats is the fact that they have no real running game to speak of, averaging a modest 121.3 rushing yards per game on a weak 3.6 yards per carry. Thus, we feel that Cincinnati will struggle to generate much of anything offensively vs. the staunch Hokies defense, and that their best chance to score may come off of short fields created by turnovers and special teams.
The problem there is that Virginia Tech has excellent special teams and they are conservative offensively. Sure, the Hokies are averaging a lowly 22.2 points per game, but given their defense, that is just fine as they do not turn the ball over much due to their style.
The major knock against the Hokies is that they often play not to lose rather than to win, but these teams are like mirror images in that regard, except that Virginia Tech has historically done it better. They have also faced arguably tough competition, as the ACC is stronger than the Big East and Tech owns an impressive non-conference road win at Nebraska.
Finally, do not forget that entering this bowl season, ACC bowl underdogs were 12-3-1 against the spread the last five years, and Miami Florida and North Carolina State have both improved on that record in recent days. We look for Virginia Tech to do the same with an outright win.
Free Pick: Virginia Tech +2½ (-110)