Once again the Ducks have lost their starting quarterback. But that news is actually driving this spread down enough to make Oregon the play against the Boise St. Broncos.
As soon as the betting pundits heard that starting Oregon QB Justin Roper will miss 2-4 weeks with a partially torn MCL, the money started to flow in on the side of the visiting underdogs, the Boise State Broncos. There were wise guys and squares waiting to pounce on the books as soon as the news broke, bringing the line down, which in turn in my humble opinion now makes the Ducks the right side.
[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]After watching the Ducks' 32-26 comeback victory over Purdue last week in OT, I could see this team had grit and determination and unlike last year's version, they will be primed to respond to a QB injury. A quick look at their overall stats tells the story of an overpowering team with credible national championship aspirations. To this point in the season, Oregon is fourth in the nation in total offense (562.33 ypg) and rushing offense (323.33 ypg), and ninth in scoring offense (47.33 ppg).
Meanwhile the Boise State Broncos, despite of a 20-7 win last week against Bowling Green, surprisingly struggled when they had the rock, registering just 89 yards in total offense in the the second half. The defense, despite allowing just one TD, still gave up a total 307 yards. With that said, I'm not totally sold on this year's version of the Broncos, especially on the road against what must be recognized as a superior program from a better conference.
What I'm betting will happen is that JUCO transfer Jeremiah Masoli and Chris Harper will both see playing time under center for the Ducks. The huge Oregon offensive line will give the pivots time to operate, and a lot of pressure will be alleviated via a heavy taste of a viable running game. As the contest progresses, look for and expect the Broncos overmatched D to fold, and for huge holes to open up which result in a boatload of scoring opportunities for the home side.
Final Notes & Key Trends: Oregon is 28-1 their last 29 SU in non-conference home games and Mike Bellotti has won 17 straight against WAC programs. Boise State has lost 12 straight road games vs BCS Schools by an average of 21 PPG, and have a recent history of starting slowly in their first road game away from the blue carpet as they failed to cover seven straight.
Projected score: Ducks-35 Broncos-20
Free Pick: Oregon -10 (-110)