Both Alabama and Auburn have had disappointing years, and both are looking to this Iron Bowl to salvage something. Look for Bama to rebound from a loss to UL Monroe.
My simulator shows a 78 percent probability that the Alabama Crimson Tide will either win outright or lose this game vs. the Auburn Tigers by four or fewer points.
Supporting this graded play is a 93 percent system that has gone 27-2 against the spread over the last 10 years, which is to play on road underdogs of 3½ to 10 points in conference games off of an upset loss as a double digit home favorite. Also, Auburn is just not in a good role for this game. Tigers Head Coach Tuberville is 9-19 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two out of the last three games as the coach of Auburn.
This is the Iron Bowl, and for these teams this is the one and only way left to salvage a disappointing season. Auburn is two weeks removed from an embarrassing loss to Georgia and Alabama is off an even more embarrassing loss to UL Monroe. Even if Head Coach Saban’s remarks regarding that loss to Monroe were a bit extreme and not completely thought out, the message to his team was impressive.
From adversity rises greatness and I think that message has been drilled into the players’ heads all week. In many different ways, the system above reflects the ability of a team to rebound strongly from a humiliating loss, so take the Tide.
Free Pick: Alabama +4½