New Mexico has nothing to play for in this final game of their season while Colorado St. has a shot at a bowl bid. Back the Rams at home at home when they host the Lobos.
Back in an early-season edition of ”Verities and Balderdash,” we focused on the various elements that the 12-game schedule would bring into play, now that all teams are into the rhythm of that being the way of life. This game provides us with a classic example of how we can use one of those edges for our purposes, with a road favorite that may bring little or nothing to the table.
New Mexico will become the first team to call it a season, with the Lobos packing up all of their equipment when this one is over. It is a problem from two directions:
A team that has appeared in a bowl game for seven straight seasons certainly did not plan on the end coming in mid-November, and;
In playing 12 games in as many weeks, the Lobos are the only team at this level that did not have a bye week, and that means both physical and psychological issues for this setting.
The college football season is a long grind, and while there are often humorous references about the academic standards involved at this level, the bottom line is that most of these players do go to class. Much of the anticipated fatigue is negated by the fact that there are continually targets to shoot for – championships, winning seasons, bowl bids, and the last home game for the senior class. But what happens when those targets go away?
We see things like the listless New Mexico loss at U.N.L.V. on Saturday night, when there were still minor bowl hopes in play, and we do not expect to see anything special from Bronco Mendenhall’s team here. Not that they are capable of much anyway, which is one of the prime reasons why they will finish with their first losing record since 2000. The passing game could not deal with the loss of starting QB Donovan Porterie early in the season (they have not reached 200 air yards in a game), and that made it easy for opposing defenses to stack the line of scrimmage, rendering the offensive helpless on many occasions.
Contrast the flat Lobos with the spark that Colorado State will play with. Assuming that Utah goes 12-0 and earns the likely BCS spot that will come along with that, it means that a Mountain West bowl tie-in has been opened up, and Steve Fairchild’s Rams can qualify for that by winning here, and again at Wyoming next week. It is also the last home game for a senior class that includes starting QB Billy Farris, leading rusher Gartrell Johnson (only needs 71 yards to reach 1,000 for the season), and TE Kory Sperry, a potential NFL draft choice. They have beaten Houston and U.N.L.V. on this field, while also taking T.C.U. and Brigham Young to the final possession, creating a perfect 4-0 ATS run in which they have beaten the spread by 42.5 points. The hungrier and fresher team should not have any difficulty winning this one SU.
Free Pick: Colorado St +2½ (-110)