Phillip Fulmer and the Volunteers are still getting too much respect despite a very mediocre team oon the field. Play South Carolina Gamecocks to stuff Tennessee.
Old habits die hard, and so do perceptions that have been based on results for a long period of time. That is the case with the betting markets and their rating of Phil Fulmer and his Tennessee Volunteers right now.
Last week there was a major line move backing them against Alabama in the middle of the week that opened the door for us to cash a 4* ticket, and now we find ourselves in a similar position, with Wednesday’s Tennessee money now taking this one to the right plateau for us to back the much fresher and much better team in a bargain range.
The bottom line with Tennessee is that this team is nowhere near the outstanding squads Fulmer has turned out in the past, and the key for our purposes is that the decline actually started LY, but was not noticed. That is what happens when a team makes it to the SEC championship game. But it took some good fortune for that to happen – the Volts had two conference wins that came in overtime, and an additional escape vs. Vanderbilt by a single point in regulation. One of those overtime wins came against Steve Spurrier and Carolina, and it was a win that absolutely did not belong on the Tennessee ledger – the Gamecocks led by stunning counts of +15 in first downs and 184 yards in total offense, but they were -3 in turnovers, including two in the final 6:52 of regulation play.
Now fast forward and what was an only average Tennessee team in 2007 is an even weaker squad this time around. In opening 1-4 in SEC play the Vols have averaged only 12.2 first downs and 221.2 yards per game, which is why three of the defeats came by at least a dozen points. This is not a case of an offense that is misfiring, but rather one that does not have the weapons to make plays, and now that they are taking the field for the 8th time in as many weeks, there are levels of physical and emotional fatigue that make it most difficult to get any of that turned around.
Contrast their state of mind and body with that of South Carolina, which has had two full weeks to not only get physically fresh for this one, but to also let those films of LY’s defeat build an extremely high focus level. And that time off is a major tactical edge for Spurrier as well – it means a chance for some extended time with QB Stephen Garcia working with the first team offense, and that is going to create a one-two option at the position that the Old Ball Coach can use to frustrate opposing defenses, with Garcia’s mobility creating many more run options, and Chris Smelley changing the pace in the passing game.
This one is really won by the Carolina defense, however. The Gamecocks are #1 in the SEC and #6 in the nation in total defense, a success rate that has led to Ellis Johnson getting a contract extension during the bye week (from Spurrier - ”I think we’ve got the best defensive coordinator in the country”). His athletic group can completely stifle the pedestrian Tennessee skill players, and dominate field position throughout.
Free Pick: South Carolina -5 (-110)