Too much hype surrounds the coaches in this game and far too many points are being handed to the Tennessee Volunteers when they take on their SEC rivals and the top-ranked Florida Gators.
There was no particular hurry to get to this one – we have been able to sit in the huddle all week watching the market go up while the play clock runs down. But now with +30 available across the board it is time to go ahead and run the play.
Rarely have we ever seen a concept as over-hyped by the media as Urban Meyer wanting to rub it in on Lane Kiffin following some ill-advised offseason comments by the latter, and of course the betting public has latched on. That gives us outstanding value to take the kind of athletes that we simply do not ever find in this pointspread range.
Is it so easy that Meyer can dictate whatever score he wants? Of course not. And is the real goal of Meyer to go out of his way to subject Kiffin to an embarrassment? We don’t buy that either. As attractive as that may sound as a betting concept, Meyer likely will have to win 13 straight games to qualify for a spot in the BCS Championship, and with so many challenges ahead, including an SEC trip next week, he is savvy enough to make this all about “business.”
Here is the rub – we get a defense at +30 that did not allow more than that number in a single game last year, and while Florida was the team that rang up the 30, note how it happened. The Gators were held to season-lows of 16 first downs and 243 yards, but special teams and a +3 turnover advantage did the trick. This will be the fifth time around for the Tennessee red-shirts on defense against the Gator spread, and they have held them to 338.8 yards per game through the first four. This is not only an athletic defense that can match up across the field, keyed by SS Eric Berry, who may well be the best defensive player in the nation, but they are also under the tutelage now of Monte Kiffin, one of the best DC’s that the sport has produced.
And you can be sure that the challenge of this particular setting has been a focus for Kiffin for quite some time (we particularly enjoyed a Sporting News column from Matt Hayes, who interviewed Kiffin following the latter’s surgery back in the spring, and saw that he was already back in his office breaking down Florida films). Kiffin’s forte has been to take big plays away and force the opposition to execute with precision to get down the field, and that helps to bring us just the tempo that we are looking for.
The Tennessee offense may not be anything special yet, but absolutely brings enough for this setting – there are seven senior starters that have been through enough SEC road battles to stand up to this environment. We say “yet” because there are freshmen game-changers in RB Bryce Brown (22 carries for 138 yards and a TD so far), and WR Marsalis Teague (six catches for 86 yards and a TD) that will become bigger factors each week, and they are the kind of talents that can compete one-on-one with the Florida players they are up against.
We do not see either the talent gap, or the intent of Meyer, meriting anywhere near this pointspread range. Do not be surprised to find the Vols competing hard for the full 60 minutes, and for Meyer to focus on game management in the latter stages, with the BCS Trophy the prize, and not the ego battle that is driving the markets to this game.
Free Pick: Tennessee +30 (-110)