The Texas Longhorns have BCS aspirations this season with Colt McCoy under center, but they'll fail to cover this spread vs. Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday night in Austin.
UL Monroe had a down year in 2008, rating at 17½ points worse than an average and winning just four games, but the Warhawks should be better defensively this season and the offense has a potential new star in quarterback Troy Revell.
Revell was a backup to quarterback Kinsmon Lancaster the last two seasons and certainly isn't likely to throw the ball as well as Lancaster did (59% completions and just 7 interceptions), but Revell is an outstanding runner and will use his feet to make up for his questionable arm. Revell has completed only 33 of 67 career passes for an average of just 4.7 yards per pass play, but he's run for 242 yards on just 24 rushing plays and his overall yards per play the last two seasons is 6.0 yppl, which is exactly the same as Lancaster. The Warhawks figure to be much more reliant on the run with their top backs returning and with a much more experienced offensive line that returns 4 of 5 starters (just 1 OL returning starter last year). Last year's offense was only 0.4 yppl worse than average and I'll call for the same production this year but with a few more interceptions.
Monroe's defense appeared to be in decent shape heading into last season but the Warhawks lost 2 returning starters before the season started and their top linebacker James Truxillo to injury for the season in game 2. ULM went from 0.7 yppl worse than average to 1.7 yppl worse than average last season - although they were only 1.0 yppl worse than average if you take out their game against UL Lafayette in which they gave up 728 yards at a ridiculous 12.1 yppl. The defense returns 9 starters this season and Truxillo is also back and I rate that unit at 0.9 yppl worse than average heading into this season with the potential to be better.
Texas lost one game last season, a 33-39 final seconds heartbreaker at Texas Tech but they lost out in the BCS Championship sweepstakes when Oklahoma got the call to be whipped by Florida. The Longhorns look just as good this season as they did last season, as quarterback Colt McCoy returns along with 7 other offensive starters while the defense is actually more experienced that last season's solid unit.
McCoy was incredibly good last season, completing an NCAA record 77% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB) while also leading the team in rushing. I just don't see McCoy being quite as good as he was last season, but the running back should do a better job of contributing behind a very good and experienced offensive line that returns 4 starters. Overall the offense should be just as good.
The Texas defense improved over the previous two seasons, as DC Bill Muschamp put more emphasis on pass defense in exchange for a worse run defense. That was a necessity in the pass-heavy Big 12 and the Longhorns' defense should be even better this season despite the loss of 3 NFL defensive linemen, including 1st round pick Brian Orakpo and his 19 tackles for loss. The line may be down, but he linebackers will be better and the secondary looks great with sophomore Earl Thomas about to become a super star after breaking up 19 passes as a freshman from the strong safety position (I've never seen numbers like that from a strong safety).
Texas is once again among the best teams in the nation, but I rate the Longhorns as the 8th best team in the nation and they could be a bit overrated.
Texas destroyed bad teams last season and won their 4 early season non-conference games by scores of 52-10, 42-13, 52-10, and 52-10 while going 4-0 ATS. My math model would have favored Texas by 41 points over UL Monroe using last year's stats, but Monroe is a much better team this season while Texas is about the same or perhaps a point or two better. I'll lean with UL Monroe plus the points as the line appears to be too high here (I make it 38 points).
© Copyright 2009. Reprinted with permission of the author.