Stanford and UCLA battle Friday with the Pac-12 title hanging in the balance. College
football odds have been made available, and we've come up with our conclusion
with regards to the total.
Odds Overview
The Cardinal enter this game favored by 8.5 points. The total has been set
at 45 at most sportsbooks. You can also locate 44.5 or even 45.5 if you shop
around enough.
UCLA Bruins Offense/Defense
Brett Hundley has quickly become one of the most exciting
quarterbacks in the country, and he's only a freshman. He's completed 67.8 of
his passes and thrown 26 touchdowns against 10 interceptions while running
for seven scores, too.
His contributions are a big reason why the Bruins are #22
in total offense. Hundley and running back Johnathan Franklin have meant
everything to this team.
Franklin has 249 rushing attempts for 1,506 yards (6.0 YPC)
and 11 touchdown runs; moreover, he has has over 300 receiving yards and two TD grabs as
well. He was held in check for the most part (21 carries for 65 yards and a
score) against the Cardinal last week, but he's always capable of breaking a
long one.
UCLA's defense hasn't been nearly as impressive. The Bruins
are #79 in total defense and have given up a very pedestrian 25.8 points per
contest this season.
Stanford Cardinal Offense/Defense
It's pretty much exactly the opposite for the Cardinal,
though they have improved offensively ever since Kevin Hogan took over as the
quarterback. Stanford is ranked #19 in total defense and #82 in total offense.
The biggest advantage the Cardinal have here is their
stifling run defense, which is giving up a mere 71.4 yards per game, tops in
the nation. They've shut down some terrific backs already this season,
including Franklin and Kenjon Barner – can they get after Franklin again on
Friday night?
Back to the offense. Hogan is undefeated as the starter and
has done a great job of managing the offense, and he's been helped out
significantly by the play of Stepfan Taylor over the last few weeks.
Taylor's last two games speak for themselves. He had 33
carries for 161 yards in the win over Oregon and then toted the rock 20 times
for 142 yards and two scores against UCLA last weekend. Obviously the Cardinal
will be in a good spot if he Taylor can get going like that once more.
Betting Trends
The OVER is 5-0 in UCLA's last five games overall.
The OVER is 4-1 in UCLA's last five “road” games.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Stanford's last seven games overall.
The OVER is 16-7 in Stanford's last 23 “home” games.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings
between UCLA and Stanford.
* Not technically a home game, but still an advantage for
Stanford nonetheless.
O/U Pick
The total finished at 52 in last week's encounter, but we
think this is going to be a defense-oriented battle on Friday.
Look for a heavy emphasis on the run game, especially since Franklin and
Taylor have both been running extremely well all season long.
Stanford's recent performances have resulted in a lot of
UNDERs. When you hold both Oregon and USC to 14 points, you know you're doing
something right defensively. That's why we think this one will stay below the
posted O/U.
Pick: UNDER
45.5 at Bookmaker
Don't forget to read Steven's early picks and odds article on the game.