My free college football pick selection is on North Texas plus the points as they host UL Lafayette. The public will bet UL Lafayette team on account of its 4-2 record, but as I will demonstrate, Mean Green is actually the superior team.

This is a 10* graded play on North Texas as they host UL Lafayette. My plays are built upon a foundation of 5* graded plays. Based on the neural network based simulator, they will build up from there to 10* and then the 20* Titans. The key to being successful at sports betting, just as is it is in so many other endeavors in society, is to be disciplined. 

We immediately associate discipline with the Marines or with doing something that is not fun. Well, in my experience of 18-years handicapping sports, discipline is what has kept me from financial disasters - now, that would have been no fun! It is always better not to force a bet and simply watch the game for what it is, then to simply make a bet for no other reason than the action. 

North Texas Mean GreenSo, do yourself a favor and join me at the College Football with John Ryan thread each day. There are dozens of contributors providing their insight not only to my releases, but plays they find strong on their own merit and research. It is certainly worthwhile. 

College football odds makers currently favor visiting UL Lafayette by -4

Simulator Projection

The simulator shows a high probability that North Texas will win this game outright, so I am calling for the upset winner in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-16 using the Money Line for 59% winners and has made a whopping 36 units per one unit wagered since 2002. This system has averaged a +225 dog play. 

Play on all dogs of +155 to +300 using the money line after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game and returning 8 or more offensive starters including the quarterback and is now facing an opponent returning five or less defensive starters. This system shows the importance, and often overlooked, of team chemistry and experience with the offensive unit, especially when going up against a defensive unit that is learning how to play as a cohesive unit. 

Tweaking this system to include just home dogs, regardless of the money line level. the record improves dramatically to a 40-13 mark that has made 41 units per one unit wagered since 2006. The average play drops to a +135 dog, but the winning percentage increases to 76%.  

Black Jack Systems

I often refer to these systems as “Black Jack’ systems drawing an analogy to the ever popular casino game. There are huge differences, though. At the casino, you get a 50:50 payout for winning hands and are rewarded more for the ‘21 winner winner chicken dinner’ hands. However, the first system pays you 2.35:1 for every winning hand. Moreover, the odds at the casino of winning a hand are essentially 50%. Yet, with the system, they improve to 59% winners. So, it is obvious that playing this system has a far greater probability of making you far more money than sitting a casino where they control the action. 

Strength of Schedule

First, records of college football teams are just that, number of wins and losses. What is far more important, is who they played and what those teams have done prior to their game and how they have performed since. 

We just saw No. 5 West Virginia get destroyed by an unranked Texas Tech team this past week and that was a 10* play released on my thread. It is fact that I never expected the Red Raiders to throttle the Mountaineers, but i did expect the upset win. In this Tuesday night game, LA-Lafayette has the superior record, but the strength of their opponents pales in comparison to who north Texas has played to date. 

LA-Lafayette has played Lamar, at Troy, at Oklahoma State, Florida International, and Tulane. Only Oklahoma State to whom they lost, 65-24, is a quality opponent on that schedule. North Texas has played at LSU, Texas Southern, at Kansas State, Troy, at Florida Atlanta and at Houston. So, the "seasoning" of playing a vastly superior schedule will serve North Texas very well in this matchup.

Pick: Take North Texas plus the points and consider adding a 3* amount on the money line.