Fresno State's 1-3 record is very deceiving with the schedule they've endured, and the Bulldogs will prove to be too tough for the Warriors in Hawaii this Saturday evening.
The Fresno State Bulldogs could possibly be the best 1-3 team in the country; they are certainly one of the most dangerous 1-3 teams in the nation.
The Bulldogs have outgained every opponent this season and their schedule has featured three ranked teams which are currently undefeated. FSU lost to Wisconsin in OT in Madison, lost to No. 6 Boise State and number No. 8 Cincinnati, all solid teams and much tougher than the opponents the Warriors have faced to this point in the season.
Hawaii has defeated Central Arkansas and Washington State but was shut completely down by Louisiana Tech in their conference opener last week, albeit on the road and they do return to the islands for this contest they are just not that good nothing like recent years when they delivered some huge wins at home.
The Warriors will be without their most productive player, QB Greg Alexander, who has thrown for 358 yards per game on 65 percent completions and a 9-4 TD to INT ratio. He is out for the season with a knee injury. Bryant Moniz will take his place and start at QB having thrown for 73 yards per game with 50 percent completions and no touchdowns or interceptions. Last week versus LA Tech the Warriors were held without a touchdown for the first time since the '04 season and the prospects for this week don’t appear to be much better.
This Fresno State team has faced tough opposition and come up just short they need this win desperately to keep their bowl hopes alive and you can bet they are well aware of this fact and will be focused here for several reasons. Not only do they need this win for possible bowl eligibility they have triple revenge against this Warriors team after having lost the last three in a row. Last season these two met in California and the Warriors upset the Bulldogs as 21-point road underdogs, 32-29 in OT.
The Warriors have returned home but they spent 17 of the last 23 days on the road, including three consecutive road games, and they will still be showing signs of that fatigue here. Our defensive rankings have the Warriors with the 107th ranked rushing defense in the nation and that is always the first thing to go when fatigue becomes a factor.
Hawaii's weary defense will be facing the second-ranked rusher in the country in Fresno’s Ryan Matthews who has rushed for 592 yards on 6.8 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns already this season. Those yards came against solid opposition as well, much tougher defensive units than that of the Warriors. It could be a very long night for a tired Warriors defense against this Fresno State offensive unit.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index favors the Bulldogs here by 12.8 points over the Warriors, so lay the chalk with the visitor as they avenge last season’s loss and keep their bowl hopes alive.
Projected Final core: Bulldogs-40 Warriors-23
Free Pick: Fresno St -9½ (-110)