Washington at USC: College football pick

By: | www.sbrforum.com

A lot of hype surrounding the 2012 NFL Draft is already developing.  It's become affectionately known as the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes in honor of the Stanford quarterback who is projected to be the No. 1 pick.


There's at least one college football coach who thinks Luck should be the second quarterback taken. 

"If I'm an NFL head coach right now, I'd pick Matt Barkley ahead of Andrew Luck," Washington Huskies head coach Steve Sarkisian remarked during a recent press conference. 

Matt BarkleySarkisian is currently trying to formulate a game plan to stop Barkley and the USC Trojans this Saturday at the Los Angeles Coliseum (3:30 PM ET).  The college football odds have USC -11.5 after the Trojans opened a point stronger. 

It's entirely possible Sarkisian is playing mind games with Barkley; coaches have been known to do that before, you know.  Barkley even responded by saying the Huskies coach was just 'pouring sugar' on him in an attempt to get the Southern Cal signal caller to relax too much and become overconfident. 

It is also entirely possible the Washington coach is right, that Barkley will be a better QB on the pro level.  Next year's collegiate talent grab by the NFL is expected to once again be rich with quarterbacks.  Landry Jones, Robert Griffin III and Kellen Moore are just three of the many names who will be available along with Luck and Barkley.  The seventh or eighth QB selected could very well turn out to be better than either of the two Pac-12 standouts. 

But if what Sarkisian said is true and Barkley is better than Luck right now, it makes the early action on the Huskies driving the odds down all the more baffling. 

Stanford destroyed the Huskies three weeks ago, 65-21.  While Luck threw for a season-low 169 yards, he left the game with an excellent QB rating by completing 16 of his 21 tosses, didn't throw a pick and directed a Cardinal offense that racked up 615 total yards. 

The 446 yards rushing by Stanford that day might at first appear to be an anomaly, but the truth is the Huskies defense really hasn't been able to stop any offense from doing what its good at this year.  Nebraska piled up over 300 yards rushing on Washington, and five schools have passed for more than 300 yards vs. the Huskies, including Eastern Washington's 473 in the season opener. 

Yes, the high-octane Oregon Ducks didn't even reach 400 total yards last week in a 34-17 win at Washington.  Chalk that up to the Ducks suffering from look-ahead disease with a trip to face Stanford this week. 

Luck certainly has personal stats on his mind with the prospect of a Heisman Trophy as well as his future in the NFL, but he's also thinking BCS Championship.  Barkley doesn't have a bowl game to think about, and these next three weeks against the Huskies, Ducks and finally the UCLA Bruins are USC's 'national championship.' 

Barkley and the Southern Cal offense should have an extra weapon for this game with running back Marc Tyler expected to be on the field.  The senior was absent a week ago in the 42-17 win at Colorado due to a shoulder injury and is second on the team in rushing behind Curtis McNeal.  Keeping the Huskies at least honest on the run will open the field up for Barkley and his favorite target Robert Woods. 

Saturday's total is 62.5 points.  Both teams have slight leans to the OVER this season, but the UNDER has cashed three of the last five games with a push. 

Taking a Chance: There are two concerns here for would-be Trojans backers. First is Washington could be catching its second-straight team in a look-ahead spot with USC going to Eugene next week to meet the Ducks.  Second is the weather.  Believe it or not, there's a good chance of rain in generally sunny LA for Saturday and that always makes for weird outcomes as far as scoring goes.  My pick is Southern Cal -11.5 and the UNDER.  USC takes it, 31-17. 


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