West Virginia vs.Texas: College Football Picks

#7 West Virginia fresh off their incredible 70-63 victory over Baylor will now face a much tougher opponent in #9 Texas. This is West Virginia’s first year in the Big-12 and there is a disadvantage playing in unfamiliar hostile surroundings.

College Football Betting Preview

West Virginia at Texas

7:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 6, 2012

Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium

Both teams collide with 4-0 records and the winner of this game takes another big step toward a BCS bowl game and a possible shot at the National Championship. Most shops only have them at a 7 point difference on the betting odds, but I believe it will be Texas that takes that step and that this game may end up being a laugher. 

Texas ranks 40th nationally averaging 267.8 passing yards per game, 19th averaging 228 rushing yards per game, and ninth averaging 47.3 points per game. Defensively, they rank 41st allowing 21 points per game. 

West Virginia ranks best nationally averaging 441.5 passing yards per game, 71st averaging 157 rushing yards per game, and third averaging 53 points per game. Defensively, they rank 96th allowing 32.5 points per game. The passing rank is a bit skewed by last week’s Baylor game, where quarterback Smith threw for 656 passing yards and eight touchdowns. They are a prolific offense, no doubt, but Texas is a vastly better defensive unit than what Baylor brings to the table.

Tavon Austin will certainly be the focus of the Texas defense. He has 48 receptions and has gained 560 yards with seven touchdowns. He is a slot receiver, who also has gained 84 rushing yards on six carries. His dual threat, though will be severely tested as Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro will be matched up against him. At 6-1 and 210 pounds, I expect Vaccaro to use his physical strength and quickness and jam Austin at the line of scrimmage. This will disrupt the flow of his routes and also give more time for the Texas defensive front to get to Smith. I see Vaccaro limiting Austin’s impact on the game. 

I also like how strong the Texas running game is this season. By being able to run the ball on West Virginia, it will allow quarterback Ash the opportunity to employ some play action pass plays where he will have man coverage on the perimeter and with the tight end over the middle of the field.

The West Virginia defense is a very fast unit with linebackers that get to the ball carrier very quickly. They are prone, however, to poor gap management and discipline. With that said, Texas will use different formations and run mis-directions plays to exploit the over aggressive nature of the defense. These types of plays will limit how defensive coordinator Joe DeForest will be able to bring pressure, which in turn gives Ash more time to throw the ball. 

Texas will have a significant edge in time of possession and this will wear down the Mountaineer defensive front over the course of the game. Moreover, it will limit the number of Mountaineer possessions and plays run. The greater the disparity in plays run and time of possession, the bigger the lead will be for the Longhorns. 

Texas head coach Mack Brown has his team playing very well and has a quarterback playing with tremendous confidence and poise. Brown is also 21-11 ATS after a dominating performance  having 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24 or more first downs. 

Free NCAAF Pick: Take the Longhorns for a 10* graded play.