Expect Western Michigan to take to the air Saturday in East Lansing when QB Tim Hiller and the Broncos take on Mike D'Antonio's Michigan State Spartans.
I'm taking the points with Western Michigan on Saturday (12:00 p.m. ET) when they meet in-state rivals Michigan State in East Lansing.
The Spartans were terrible last week on defense and watched Minnesota QB Adam Weber throw for 416 yards on 19 of 31 passing with five TD passes. Weber accomplished this with his No. 1 receiver sidelined for the game. The Spartans were out-gained 505-360 in total offense.
If they thought the Gopher passing game was strong, wait until they get a load of WMU QB Tim Hiller. The 6-5, 228-lb. senior is connecting on 63% of his passes, averaging 279-yards per game with 17 TDs and only eight picks.
No less than six receivers have caught between 23 and 47 passes on the season. Those six are averaging between 8.0 and 13.6 yards per catch. And Hiller has thrown TD passes to eight different receivers.
Michigan State Head Coach Mike D'Antonio has already spoken about a "poor coaching job" on the defensive side of the ball. I don't believe it'll get any better for MSU in this one.
The Spartans defense has allowed 29 points or more in four of their last eight games, and already have a loss this season against a MAC entry when CMU knocked them off in East Lansing.
In fact, WMU actually played better against that common foe. The Broncos gained 426 yards in the loss, while CMU out-gained MSU by over 100 yards.
D'Antonio went through a bit of a meltdown following the loss to Minnesota, cutting off players' access to the media. The bottom line is that the team has under-performed all season. And if the coach is expecting a quick bounce-back, he's likely mistaken.
Michigan State is on a 5-17 ATS slide off an upset loss against a Big Ten entry. The Spartans are truly struggling and this line, which opened higher than it should have (in my opinion), continued to climb even higher during the week. MSU is currently laying 20½ points. I was prepared to go against them at 17. I'll grab the value with Western Michigan on Saturday.
Free Pick: Western Michigan +20½ (-110)
