This year’s Rose Bowl sees two power house teams that ended their respective regular season schedules in top form. Expect an excellent brand of mistake free football with plenty of drama and big play execution of both sides of the ball.
Wisconsin backgroundWisconsin won the Big-10 Championship by virtue of their win over Michigan State 42-39, but failed to cover the 9.5 point betting line. They are on a five game winning streak, but have covered just two of the past seven contests. Their two losses came in consecutive weeks, losing at Michigan State 37-31 and failing to cover as 7.5 point favorites and then the following week against Ohio State losing 33-29 and failing to cover as eight point favorites.
Since those two losses, they have scored 42 points or more in the five game winning streak. They scored 28 points in a 28-17 win at Illinois, who sports an excellent defensive unit. So, safe to say the Wisconsin offense is one of the best in the nation.
Oregon backgroundOregon lost the first week of the season at No. 1 LSU 40-27 and then won nine straight games before losing,
as I predicted, to a highly motivated Southern California team 38-35 November 19. Southern Cal was not bowl eligible this year due to NCAA violations and subsequent penalties and sanctions so that game against Oregon was their Pac-12 Championship and Bowl game wrapped all into one game. Not making an excuse for Oregon, but that was a very tough assignment for the Ducks.
The Ducks were nearly as consistent when measured against the spread this season. They had a two game ATS winning streak and did not lose back-to back ATS all season. They are coming off their 49-31 PAC-12 Championship game, defeating a vastly inferior opponent in UCLA 49-31, but failed to cover the 31 point spread. The ‘over’ won the money in nine games and they enter this fray having played four straight ‘over’ games.
The college football betting lineThe
college football odds opened for this game with Oregon installed as a five point favorite December 4. There has been a steady force betting on Oregon
causing the line to drift to the six point level at many shops. However, there is a split currently with about half of the books I monitor posted a 5 -110 line and the other half posting a 6 -110 line. Based on experience, this is a lie that I believe will settle with Oregon installed as a 5 ½ point favorite.
The
total for this game opened at 71 ½ and there is nothing surprising about that line given the strength of both offensive units. What is surprising to me is that the line has not moved and has remained static at 71 ½. I expect some line movement as game day gets closer, but I honestly cannot tell you with any degree of certainty in which direction.
Supporting Oregon systemFor Oregon Ducks backers, this system has produced a 24-6 ATS mark for 80% winners since 1992. Play against neutral field dogs after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. As we know Wisconsin was in a barn burner type Conference Championship game against a prolific Michigan State offense. What is impressive about this system is that of the 30 plays made based on the criteria of the system, 15 of them or 52%, covered the spread by seven or more points.
My simulator shows a slight lean to Wisconsin in this BCS Rose Bowl and it is predicated on the projection the Badgers will gain 450 to 500 offensive yards. In past games where they have achieved this elite level of offensive execution they have posted a 16-1 against the money line making 18.1 units per one unit wagered when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992.
Be sure to
check back at the thread for more detail on this great matchup as game day approaches. For now,
I like Wisconsin to cover ATS.