Jim Tressel's Ohio State Buckeyes have dominated the Big Ten for the past decade with five consecutive outright or shared conference championships. Expect the same in 2010.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss and that would be the Ohio State Buckeyes who remain the team to beat in the Big Ten this season.
Since 2000 Ohio State has won the conference title outright three times (2006-07, 2009) and co-champions on three other occasions (2002, 2005, 2008). With an abundance of blue chip college football talent back this season the Buckeyes are not only poised to make it a sixth straight season at the “Top of the Ten” but they’ve also got serious designs on another BCS title.
Last season OSU went 11-2, including a conference mark of 7-1. The Buckeyes were also a solid money maker going 10-3 ATS. The big man on campus is quarterback Terrelle Pryor who had his coming out party in the Buckeyes' impressive Rose Bowl win over Oregon.
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Pryor was named MVP after throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns plus rushing for an additional 72 yards. Last season he passed for 2,094 pass yards and 18 touchdowns, and even though he had 11 interceptions only two of those came after Week 6. His favorite target DeVier Posey is back after 60 receptions for 828 yards and eight TD’s. Pryor and Posey are among eight returning starters on offense.
Ohio State returns seven starters from a defensive unit that was ranked fifth in the nation in yards allowed with 262.3. With all that talent and experience, this could be the year that head coach Jim Tressel’s charges make it back to the BCS title game. At the very least, the Buckeyes are -250 favorites to win the conference.
Here’s the “Best of the Rest” in the Big Ten with approximate college futures odds of winning the conference in parentheses.
Iowa (+350)
With Ricky Stanzi back for his senior season the Hawkeyes remain the top challenger to the Buckeyes this season. The 10th-ranked offense from a year ago returns six starters including Stanzi who has an 18-4 record as Iowa’s starting QB and has led them to back-to-back postseason victories. Last season Stanzi threw for an average 219 yards per game, fifth best in the league. The defense returns eight starters including All-American defensive end Adrian Clayborn who gave up a shot at the NFL to take another shot at Pryor and the Buckeyes.
Betting note: Iowa was 8-4 ATS last season.
Wisconsin (+350)
The Badgers went 10-3 last season, including a bowl victory over Miami, and they could be even better this year. Quarterback Scott Tolzien, running back John Clay and an experienced offensive line return which should help the Badgers improve on offense after ranking 25th in the nation in scoring (31.8 points per game). Tolzen led the Big Ten in pass efficiency with a rating of 143 and finished second among Big Ten starters in completion percentage (64.3).
Penn State (+650)
The Nittany Lions are another one of those premier football programs that never rebuilds, just reloads. Even though last year’s QB Daryll Clark has gone to the NFL, running back Evan Royster is back and that should be just enough, especially for Joe Paterno’s very unimaginative offense.
Penn State returns seven offensive starters but that means very little when every team in the conference knows what play you’re going to run before you do. The Lions will get nine or 10 wins by accident, but won’t be a player in the big picture. They’ll have to settle for “Happy Bowling in Happy Valley.”
Michigan (+1200)
The Rich Rodriguez watch continues in Ann Arbor where the Wolverines have missed out on back-to-back bowl appearances. If Rodriguez doesn’t win and win big this season (and that’s doubtful), not even a bowl appearance will save his job.
The Rodriguez and Michigan marriage has been a disaster since it was consummated two years ago. He was the wrong coach at the wrong time for the wrong school. Rodriguez should have stayed at West Virginia where he was a beloved figure because that’s not the case in Ann Arbor. Michigan returns both quarterbacks from 2009 but they haven’t named a starter yet.
Betting note: Michigan was 1-7 in conference play last year and 0-4 on the road.
Michigan State (+1200)
Hopes run high in East Lansing where Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio could have his most talented team yet in 2010. Kirk Cousins put up strong passing numbers in the Big Ten in 2009, finishing third in the conference in pass efficiency (142.6) with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. If the team can avoid those annual come-from-way-ahead losses, then Dantonio and Company could flirt with a 10-win season.
Illinois (+2000)
The Fighting Illini went 3-9 last season and that was with a pretty good QB (Juice Williams). However, Williams is trying his luck in the NFL and that means freshman Nathan Scheelhaase will likely lead the offense. The Illini do have one of the top running backs in the conference in Mikel LeShoure, and he should take some pressure off of the young QB.
Head coach Ron Zook is in the same boat as Rich Rodriguez meaning either he wins or he’s done. With Illinois' lack of depth and experience my guess is Zook will fall into the latter category.
Northwestern (+2000)
The Wildcats closed the 2009 season with upsets over Iowa and Wisconsin to finish a surprising 8-5 overall, and just missed winning their New Year’s Day bowl game when Auburn prevailed in overtime, 38-35. They’ve got several key players back from last year’s overachieving team, but they’ll be breaking in a new QB. Northwestern has a ton of holes to fill on both sides of the ball so another eight-win season could be a bit of a reach.
Purdue (+2000)
Gone are the days when the Boilermakers were a perennial bowl team. Former Purdue coach “Cowboy” Joe Tiller always seemed to be good for an upset or two each year and even if he didn’t have his team in a major bowl, they were still a cinch to be somewhere in the bowl mix.
Second-year coach Danny Hope caught a tough break when starting QB Ralph Bolden went down with a knee injury in spring practice but it may not matter anyway because Purdue’s defense can’t stop anybody. The Boilermakers ranked last in the Big Ten in rush defense last season and they appear to be even thinner on defense this year. Healthy QB or not, this could be another long season in West Lafayette.
Player to watch: Receiver Keith Smith who led the Big Ten in catches per game (7.58) and went 100 yards receiving in six games. He’s the main reason Purdue ranked 34th in the country in passing yards per game (255.2).
Indiana (+3000)
The Hoosiers figure to be okay on offense with the return of quarterback Ben Chappell and a solid group of receivers including 6-3, 195 junior Tandon Doss who finished second in the Big Ten in receiving yard per game. Indiana’s downfall is its defense which ranked 91st in the nation in points allowed. The Hoosiers have an extremely weak non-conference schedule which they better enjoy because they easily get run once Big Ten play begins.
Minnesota (+3000)
I not being hateful here, just realistic. The not-so Golden Gophers are pegged for the Big Ten cellar primarily because they lost their top two receivers from last year and they have no one to throw the ball to.
Quarterback Adam Weber is back for his senior season, but without a bona fide playmaker it will be tough to produce points. Minnesota ranked 110th in the nation in yardage per game (306.5), 110th in rushing YPG (99.5) and was 100th in scoring (20.9). Put that together with a defense that returns just two starters from a year ago and you’ve got the makings of a forgettable season.