The Auburn Tigers opened with college football futures odds of eight wins, but that has since been bet up to 8½ in part due to JUCO quarterback transfer Cam Newton.
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Could a stolen laptop be the key to Auburn’s success this year?
The Tigers have already made excellent progress dragging themselves out of the crater left at the end of Tommy Tuberville’s 10-year reign as head coach. Gene Chizik was an unpopular hire after going 5-19 (11-11 ATS) in two years at Iowa State, but with his hand on the tiller, the young Tigers went 8-5 (6-7 ATS) last year. That’s the most wins for a first-year coach in school history.
The Chizik Bandwagon still has some room. The college betting odds for this year opened with Auburn stuck at eight wins on the over/under, but generally positive previews have helped push that number to 8½, with the 'over' priced at -140.
The player generating the most hype: quarterback Cam Newton, formerly Tim Tebow’s understudy at Florida. Newton left the program after he was arrested for possessing a laptop stolen from another student. He’s back for a shot at redemption after leading Blinn College to the JUCO championship last year.
Newton is the real deal. At 6-foot-6 and 240-plus pounds, he draws easy comparisons to former LSU Tigers star JaMarcus Russell. There are two important differences to consider, however.
One, Newton is better on his feet than Russell, picking up 655 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns for Blinn College in addition to 22 TDs through the air. Two, Newton has made huge strides learning the playbook since committing to Auburn on New Year’s Eve. That combination of talent and hard work has earned Newton the starting gig for this season.
This is like a gift from the gods for Auburn supporters. They’ve already seen the Tigers attack undergo a complete overhaul under offensive co-ordinator Gus Malzahn, whose hire was arguably the most important decision Chizik made last year. Malzahn is credited for helping popularize the no-huddle offense and the Wildcat; in 2009, Auburn broke school records for scoring and yards gained, taking the 'over' to an 8-3-2 record. Judging by his performance this spring, Newton has taken to Malzahn’s playbook like a duck to water.
The market for the 'over' on game totals has almost certainly peaked, of course. The Auburn defense is also looking forward to better things in 2010 after allowing 358 points last year – the most in the SEC. Defensive co-ordinator Ted Roof, another sharp hire by Chizik, has eight starters returning on his side of the field to go along with seven holdovers on offense, placing Auburn odds in line with expectations..
Roof is pulling double duty as the linebackers coach, so it follows that this is the strength of the Auburn defense, anchored by seniors Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens. Health is a concern at the safety position, but the Tigers are otherwise stocked with talent.
When it comes to the 'over' for season victories, the kicker for Auburn is the kicker. Wes Byrum only missed one field goal in 16 attempts last year, and that was from 46 yards out against the Kentucky Wildcats. Byrum made five kicks from at least 40 yards away – impressive for someone at the college level, but Byrum is already a 21-year-old senior and has plenty of leg at 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds.
With all these assets and a forgiving schedule, Auburn is in a strong position to pick up nine wins before the Iron Bowl, the annual season-ending battle with the rival Alabama Crimson Tide. That’ll be a tough nut to crack with this year’s game taking place in Tuscaloosa. But the Tigers nearly derailed Alabama’s undefeated streak last year, dropping a 26-21 decision as a 10-point home dog. And Auburn will enjoy a bye week leading up the Iron Bowl, while Alabama will be playing on a Friday night with just five days to prepare.
Even if Auburn comes up short again versus Alabama, the 2010 schedule only has three other away dates: September 9 at Mississippi State, October 9 at Kentucky, and October 30 at Ole Miss. Looks like the good times are back at AU.