On Saturday, April 28th, The Oregon Ducks removed their shroud of spring practice secrecy and revealed themselves to the world- sort of. This spring scrimmage game was covered by ESPN, played before a Pac-12 record-setting spring game crowd of more than 44,000, and undoubtedly had the air of a “real” football game.

In last week’s article previewing the game, I outlined some questions that a spring scrimmage game could have answered. With the conclusion of the 2012 spring practice season, let us examine the answers to those questions with the hope of informing BCS National Championship futures bettors. 

Before delving into our analysis of the spring scrimmage, just understand a few things about the game itself. This was not a typical practice matchup of first-teamers versus second-teamers. Offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich coached the “Fighting Ducks,” while defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti was in charge of “Mighty Oregon.” Both coaches drafted players onto their teams, which made for a pretty even split of the returning (and projected) starters. Quarterbacks wore red jerseys and were considered tackled with the touch of just one defensive hand. The first half had two, 12-minute quarters, while the expedited second half had two, 10-minute, running-time quarters. The final score was Aliotti’s Mighty Oregon 41, Helfrich’s Fighting Ducks 14.

Oregon’s Offense:

  1. Oregon 2012 spring scrimmageWill either quarterback separate himself as the clear frontrunner for the starting job? YES! That is not an answer you will hear from any Oregon coach or (de facto incumbent QB) Bryan Bennett-apologist, but it is difficult to imagine a greater performance disparity than the one between Bennett and the electrifying redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota. Even the standard statistics do not reveal how much better Mariota was: Bennett completed 19 of 32 passes (59%) for 209 yards, threw 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, ran for 27 yards and fumbled away the ball once. Mariota completed 18 of 26 passes (69%) for 202 yards, threw 1 touchdown, had 1 interception, ran for 99 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. More telling statistics would be these: Bennett had 12 drives- 2 ended in scores (16.7%), 3 ended in turnovers (25%) directly attributable to Bennett (including a pick-6); he had an uncalled illegal forward pass, and he nearly threw a third interception. Mariota, on the other hand, had just 10 drives- 6 ended in scores (60%), 1 ended in a turnover (10%), and he had an 82-yard TD run (remember, it just would have taken one defensive hand to “tackle” him). His single interception was a spectacular diving grab by defensive back Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Speaking of Ekpre-Olomu, he has been laser-timed running the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds, and he is the defensive back that Mariota out ran on his 82-yard TD run! If one game can judge (and everyone insists that it cannot), Marcus Mariota is Oregon’s next starting quarterback. Duck fans compare him to Dennis Dixon, but I think a better comparison is to former Nevada QB, Colin Kaepernick. After all, Mariota is taller than Dixon (like Kaepernick) and he is also faster (like Kaepernick). In sum, we can reasonably conclude that Oregon will not miss Darron Thomas. Have no doubts about effective play from the quarterback position.
  2. How well does De’Anthony Thomas play at running back? The ridiculously fast athlete saw very little playing time in the spring scrimmage. Presumably, head coach Chip Kelly knows what Thomas brings to the team, and Oregon cannot afford any injuries to their most important, yet understaffed position. Kenjon Barner (who also saw very little scrimmage playing time) looks to be the every-down back. The question looming about De’Anthony Thomas is durability. No one questions his speed. (We are talking sub-4.3, 40-time.) Yet, at 5’9” and only 173 pounds, we must wonder if this true sophomore can run between the tackles and endure the rigors of 150 to 200 carries. If Kenjon Barner goes down, I think this team might be in real trouble.
  3. What will the offensive line look like? As anticipated in the preview article, the most experienced returning offensive lineman, Carson York, did not play. Given that the other two returning O-line starters were on opposite sides for the scrimmage, grading the offensive line was difficult. However, given all of the confidence placed in the depth and experience on the defensive line, these offensive lines looked better than expected. That was especially true for “Mighty Oregon” (Mariota’s team). These QB’s passed more than Oregon usually does (both to avoid running back injuries and because the QB would be downed by just a touch). The defenses registered just 4 sacks- 3 against Bennett and 1 against Mariota. Overall, the jury is still out on the offensive line, but they have an exceptional coach in Steve Greatwood, so expect steep and steady development.

 Oregon’s Defense:

  1. Oregon Ducks 2012 spring scrimmage How instantly dominant will defensive lineman Arik Armstead be? To many, Arik Armstead looked to be the best offensive tackle of the 2012 recruiting class. Yet Arik loves defense more than offense. As a defensive lineman mostly playing on the edges, the 6’8”, 297-pound freshman is a future beast. He did not appear instantly dominant, even against some young, inexperienced offensive linemen. He is sure to develop into an elite defensive end, but we might have to wait a year or two for that.   
  2. Will this defense shutdown this rushing offense? If the defense is to be the strength of the team in 2012, they will have to make a more persuasive case than they did on Saturday where they (both defenses combined) allowed 55 points. Again, with first-teamers divided and placed on opposing scrimmage squads, we had to imagine what their complete defense would look like, but this secondary sure looks formidable (even without 3-time, Pac-10/12 second teamer, senior free safety John Boyett who led this team in solo tackles for the past 3 seasons). That said, in a game that only lasted about 60% of the playing time in a regulation game, Mariota’s squad marched down the field scoring 41 points- 38 by halftime. It is fair to say that we hardly saw the standard Oregon offense on Saturday: limited rushing attempts and starting running back play, QB’s downed with a touch, a shortened game, etc. Yet even with that defensive advantage, at least half of this defense did not look to be approaching the top-10 in preventing scoring. Per our BCS “formula” for winning BCS Championships, this defense has got to improve. 

BCS Championship Speculation 

Fitting for “Track Town, USA,” the Ducks will not want for speed in 2012. Even my imagination is blurry when I picture Marcus Mariota and De’Anthony Thomas sharing the same backfield. (Yes, that combination would make Oregon even faster than the LaMichael James/Darron Thomas version from 2010 and 2011.) A BCS National Championship futures bet on Oregon (at 10-to-1) should not be avoided because of quarterback concerns. Worrying about offensive line play should not be too frightening because of Coach Greatwood’s ability and Oregon’s gentle schedule to start the year; of their first 8 games, 6 of them are at home. What is more, out-of-conference, where Oregon has struggled against top teams in the past, they face Arkansas St., Fresno St., and Tennessee Tech- all in Eugene. There is no playing LSU in Texas (a 2011 loss) and no facing Boise State in Idaho (a 2009 loss). Without overlooking some good teams that could surprise Oregon, meeting USC on November 3rd in Los Angeles, and then likely having to meet the Trojans again in the Pac-12 Championship Game will decide if Oregon gets a BCS National Championship berth. If they go undefeated in 2012, beating USC twice should be enough to get them into the big contest. If that happens, Chip Kelly and the 9 assistant coaches (who have been together on staff longer than any other group of assistant coaches in the FBS) now have enough big game experience to battle the likely SEC foe for the title. The remaining burning question is: Can Oregon produce a scoring defense that is the best in this school’s history? They will need such a defense if they are to win the BCS National Championship. Are you willing to bet on it?