There's a lot riding on this game, both on the national front as well as in the Big 12 Conference. Look for a shootout with the Oklahoma Sooners topping the Texas Longhorns.
Two of the best quarterbacks in the nation square off in this game, as Texas’ Colt McCoy and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford are both having All-American seasons.
McCoy has averaged 9.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’s added a running dimension to his game this season, rushing for 346 yards on just 43 rushing plays. Bradford doesn’t need to run given how good he is when he sits in the pocket (11.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and he should light up a questionable Texas secondary if he’s given enough time to throw.
The Longhorns are actually better than average in pass defense (4.9 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppp against an average team) because they averaged 3.6 sacks per game, but Bradford has been sacked only 15 times in 19 games in his career so he should get enough protection to find open receivers downfield. Bradford was actually pressured by TCU a couple of week ago, getting sacked 3 times, but he still averaged 10.2 yppp in that game against a very good Horned Frogs defense that would allow just 5.0 yppp on the road to an average quarterback.
Overall, Oklahoma’s offense has been 1.7 yards per play better than average when Bradford is in the game (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Texas defense is 0.5 yppl better than average. The Texas offense isn’t quite as good, as the Longhorns have averaged 6.9 yppl when McCoy is under center – against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Oklahoma is also better defensively than Texas is, as the Sooners have allowed 4.4 yppl in four games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team.
Oklahoma has a clear advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game, but the Sooners have been horrible in special teams while Texas has been good in that area. The Sooners will probably win by double-digits if their special team play doesn’t kill them, but I’ll call for this one to be right around the number.
Prediction: Oklahoma-33 Texas-27