While the Sun Belt Conference is still an added conference on the betting board, the level of play is improving and will only get better with their new four-year deal with ESPN.
The Sun Belt Conference remains an Added Games conference in college football, meaning that conference games are not on the main betting board, but that does not mean we cannot make money with this low-profile conference with the proper homework.
Besides, the play inside the conference has gotten gradually better in recent years, and the conference actually won a bowl game last season when Florida Atlantic defeated Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl. Also, a new four-year TV deal with ESPN should add lots of needed revenue to the conference, making more improvements likely.
We still feel that Troy and Arkansas State will fight it out for the conference title just as in recent years, but there are a couple of middle-of-the-pack clubs that are capable of springing a few upsets and making a run. This is how we see the Sun Belt standings at the end of the 2009 season:
1 Troy Trojans - Who can forget that Troy had the mighty LSU Tigers on the ropes at Baton Rouge last year before somehow blowing a 31-3 lead? Nevertheless, what sets the Trojans apart from the rest of the conference is the fact that they actually play defense. Defensive end Brandon Lang may be the best athlete in the entire conference, and you can expect to see him in the NFL next season. The offense is well balanced, as quarterback Levi Brown and tailback DaJuan Harris are among eight returning offensive starters from last season.
2 Arkansas State Red Wolves - The Wolves appear to be the biggest threat to Troy, and they may possibly be better offensively. They return dual threat quarterback Corey Leonard, who passed for over 2000 yards last year and rushed for 500 more, as well as running back Reggie Arnold, who is gunning for his fourth straight 1000-yard rushing season. Arkansas State is also very solid defensively, returning eight starters from a unit that allowed a respectable 23 points per game last season. This conference should be decided early, when the Red Wolves host Troy on September 26. Unfortunately for Arkansas State, we look for the great Troy defense to frustrate ASU in that affair.
3 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders - The Blue Raiders are our sleeper team in the conference this season, as we look for marked improvement from a team that finished 5-7 last season and knocked off Maryland out of the ACC out of conference. The biggest reason for our optimism is that MTSU returns 10 starters on offense. Granted, the one replacement will be at quarterback, but new signal caller Dwight Dasher was not terrible when given the opportunity in the past, and he has three speedsters at wide receiver to throw to, making that position the strength of this club. We love the fact that the great receiving corps will be facing weak secondaries in conference play every week except when they face the Big Two.
4 Florida Atlantic Owls - Veteran coach Howard Schnellenberger has put FAU football on the map, culminating in that 2008 Motor City Bowl win. Unfortunately, while the offense should be fine under the leadership of top quarterback Rusty Smith, the defense will in all likelihood prevent the Owls from making a repeat bowl appearance. The defense returns just three starters from last year, and the new recruiting class is nothing to speak of.
5 Florida International Panthers - FIU has gotten progressively better under Coach Mario Cristobal, going from zero wins in 2006 to one win in 2007 to five wins last season. However, we just do not see the Panthers taking that next step this year. Their offense is questionable at best, even with nine returning starters from a unit that finished just 96th in the country in total offense in 2008, and they return just one starter from the defensive line, a unit that was a strength for this team last year.
6 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks - It was the Warhawks that handed Troy their only conference loss last season in a 31-30 upset as 11-point underdogs, but moments like that should be rare for ULM this season. The Warhawks slipped to 4-8 overall last season as they struggled on both sides of the ball, and we expect more of the same this year. They have a brand new quarterback in Trey Revell, and while they return leading rusher Frank Goodin, he only averaged a modest 71 years last season. The defense is now considered the strength of the team, yet that unit finished 109th in the land in 2008.
7 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns - This will be a rebuilding year for the Cajuns, and they lost players at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. Granted, they return nine starters on defense, but is that really a good thing after they gave up 429.5 yards per game last season?
8 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - This will be the first year in the Sun Belt Conference for the Hilltoppers, who went winless last season at 0-10 while playing predominantly a Sun Belt schedule. So why do we not predict them to finish in the basement? Well, they have probably the best recruiting class in the entire conference, and they were actually 18-point favorites when they lost at home to North Texas last season. We see them returning the favor this year by upsetting the Mean Green on the road.
9 North Texas Mean Green - That win over Western Kentucky was the only win for North Texas last year, and if we are correct in our prediction of a Hilltoppers upset this year, then a winless season would almost be a certainty for the Mean Green. And to think that North Texas was the cream of the crop in this conference not that long ago.