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The college football betting season is less than a month away, which means now is the time to place your future bets. What better time to handicap the BCS Championship Game and make our preseason pick. Can Alabama repeat or will there be a new, familiar sheriff in town?
Still The Champs…?
The Alabama Crimson Tide (+400) went undefeated in 2009-10 and maybe people are expecting the champs to repeat. The BCS Championship odds – like almost every other shop – have 'Bama favored to do so.
All but one starter is gone off defense but the good news is eight starters are back on offense. Last year, the Crimson Tide had to lean on its defense. This year the offense will have to do the trick.
Wideouts Julio Jones and Marquis Maze, and quarterback Greg McElroy should all be improved from last year. If not, this will not be a championship team. The good news is that Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and his backfield mate, Trent Richardson return and the Tide will pound the ball on the ground regularly. The defense will take a step back, though, and if the passing game hasn’t improved, this won’t even repeat in the SEC.
The schedule is tougher in 2010, especially with a number of burgeoning teams in the SEC West. Arkansas (+3000) and Auburn (+4000) are real threats now, LSU (+3000) is hoping to bounce back and even Ole Miss is expected to be competitive after Jeremiah Masoli walked on.
The Tide has a really tough midseason stretch that includes a game at Arkansas, home against Florida (+600), a game at South Carolina (+7500), home versus Ole Miss (+10000), at Tennessee (+800) and at LSU. If Alabama can get out of that stretch with just one loss, the Tide will be back in the championship game. Two losses probably keeps them out of the SEC Championship.
Reloading, But Still Threatening
Florida, Texas (+1000) and Oklahoma (+500) all graduated their Heisman caliber quarterbacks, yet all three are in the top eight of the preseason USA Today Poll. As a matter of fact, Oklahoma produced three of the top four picks in the 2010 NFL Draft and all three teams lost a lot more than just a quarterback. Common sense says stay away from betting these teams.
Yes, they are all perennial contenders and particularly Texas and Oklahoma are a little bit ahead of the rebuilding schedule since their two quarterbacks saw some action last year, but this is a reloading year for these teams. They are still rough around the edges and they’ll stumble enough to fall out of the Championship picture. The BCS is not out of question, but the Championship game has to be a longer shot.
Buckeyes Buck Up In Big Ten
Is there any question that the Buckeyes (+500) are the class of the Big Ten when they aren’t retooling or rebuilding? Jim Tressel has another stellar club in front of him for 2010, including Heisman Trophy contending quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
The Buckeyes will be challenged by Iowa (+2000) once again and by Wisconsin (+4000) as well, but nobody is fooled. NCAA football betting oddsmakers know that those teams are a cut behind Ohio State. The good news for them is that they don’t have to travel to the Horseshoe. Ohio State has to make trips to Camp Randall and Iowa.
But with 14 returning starters and Pryor, who showed us what he can do in the Rose Bowl last year, the Buckeyes will be your Big Ten winner.
The Boise State Story
We’re used to Boise State (+700) creeping around the BCS picture always looking to bust in if enough teams lose in front of them, but this year, they control their own destiny.
The Broncos won the Fiesta Bowl last year and come into the season ranked No. 5. No longer will they have to crush hapless WAC opponents so that the computers can push them up the rankings; they are already there.
Their whole season hinges on two games: a neutral site contest against Virginia Tech (+1800) to start the season and a home game against Oregon State (+5000) two weeks later. Win those and it will be hard to keep Boise State out of the Championship game.
The Resurgent ACC?
Don’t look now but the ACC might be the…second toughest conference in college football? Believe it.
Five ACC teams are ranked in the top 20, which is the most of any conference. The problem might be that the divisions are a bit lopsided, which begs the question whether the Coastal teams will beat each other up or if one team keep a clean sheet?
Virginia Tech looks dangerous because their offense is coming together nicely and while they need to rebuild their defense, that’s not something that will keep head coach Frank Beamer and coordinator Bud Foster up late at night. They always have a defense.
November starts with a home game against Georgia Tech (+6000), then back-to-back road games at North Carolina (+6000) and Miami (+1600). If the defense can hold Boise State in the opener, they could very be in the Championship Game.
Big Least?
And of course, there is the Big East. The Pittsburgh Panthers (+6000) are considered the best in the conference and Dave Wannstedt will likely produce another good nine- or 10-win team. But it’s Wannstedt: we all know they’ll lose at least one game they shouldn’t.
Connecticut (+10000) is real cute and West Virginia (+8000) is cuddly, but let’s be serious here. When it comes to bowl season, these are the teams that will play late December, save for the winner of this conference.
The Mounain West-Side Story
TCU (+1800) is rated in the No. 7 and while a few teams in front of them are rebuilding, it’s tough to pick the Horned Frogs to go to the Championship Game. On one hand, they could and should be undefeated by the end of the season. Their only challenging game is their neutral site opener against Oregon State (maybe throw in a road trip to Utah). But will that be enough to get them into the big game?
They would need lots of losses in front of them. Boise State would have to lose, Texas, Oklahoma and Florida would have to fall off the map, and they might need even two losses from a team like Ohio State (it’s not inconceivable that if Ohio State loses a close game to a ranked team that they’d still remain above).
TCU needs to blow everyone out of the water this year and hope for losses. It’s possible, but it’s hard to picture TCU in the BCS Championship Game.
And What About The Pac 10?
What about it? Oregon (+8000) has tons of off-field problems, USC can’t win the conference, Stanford lost workhorse Toby Gerhart and Oregon State has a very challenging schedule. They’ll send someone to the BCS but no one that will play for the Championship Game.
Outlook & Prediction
Alabama won’t win the SEC – or even the SEC West. They’ll lose a couple of times while Arkansas will take the world by storm under Bobby Petrino. But they’ll have one loss as well, which will keep them just short of the BCS Championship Game.
At the same time, Ohio State will roll through the Big Ten and pull out ugly wins both at Wisconsin and at Iowa, finishing the season undefeated.
Meanwhile, Boise State will catch Virginia Tech at the right time before their defense is settled in Week 1, then handle Oregon State – and the rest of their schedule – with ease.
But in the Championship Game, the sweater vests will top the Broncos. Had it been an SEC team, I’d obviously pick against Ohio State but since it’s not, the sweater vests will climb back on top the college world.
BCS Championship Pick: Ohio State +500
Article Update on 09/12/10
We’ve now gone through two weeks of the college football season and while it has already been a banner year for the FCS, let’s take a look at the FBS and who is on track for the BCS Championship Game.
Projected Championship Matchup: No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
To this point, there’s no reason to think otherwise. Both teams have had a tough test in the first two weeks of the season and both teams passed the test with flying colors.
The Crimson Tide, who are playing without Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, have two wins, one of which includes Penn State. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are coming of their National Championship rematch against the Miami Hurricanes this week and it really wasn’t much of a contest as they dominated The U 36-24.
Both teams have yet to hit the meat of their conference schedule, but so far so good.
Outside, Looking In: No. 3 Boise State Broncos
The Boise State Broncos were idle this week but their credibility still took a hit. They beat Virginia Tech in their opener and received some first-place votes but how credible is that win now that Virginia Tech lost at home to James Madison? Yikes.
The Broncos go to Wyoming next week, then host Oregon State the week after. They need a couple of impressive wins to once again strengthen their case.
Outside, Looking In: No. 5 TCU Horned Frogs
They are getting as much BCS-busting acclaim as the Broncos are but they’ve taken care of business so far. They squashed Oregon State 30-21 in the opener and then dismantled Tennessee Tech 62-7.
If some pollsters feel that their schedule is a bit light since they play in the Mountain West, it will help that they have an improved Baylor squad visiting in two weeks. If they keep up their high-scoring pace, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they got in front of Boise State down the stretch of the BCS Championship race.
Outside, Looking In: No. 4 Texas Longhorns
They are the No. 4 team in the nation according to the AP Poll but something just doesn’t feel right. The pollsters also thought that the Florida Gators were a stellar squad and we’ve come to find out that they’ll really miss Tim Tebow; is it possible that we’ll be finding out just how much the Longhorns miss Colt McCoy in the coming weeks?
The Longhorns have scored 34 points in each of their first two games but they have looked surprisingly pedestrian against Rice and Wyoming. They have an easy schedule, but we’ll find out a lot about this squad when they visit Nebraska, then face Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks to start October.
Keep An Eye On: No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Did someone say that the Oregon Ducks were supposed to be rebuilding? With USC facing sanctions and
Oregon State already with a loss, the Ducks have cemented themselves as the team to beat in the Pac 10. Beyond that, they won 72-0 against
New Mexico in their opener and then thrashed
Tennessee 48-13 at Rocky Top. Beware of the Ducks as Chip Kelly has one heck of a team on his hands once again.