Yesterday we went 3-1 and today we are back looking to rack up some more units in our picks of the day. We have on play on a total and one on a side. Don't miss out on today’s winners, as I share two games that I believe hold the best value.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
These two teams
duked it out for close to four hours last night, almost into midnight, and and now look to meet again at 1:35 EST time. As
you heard Nomar Garciaparra say last nast night on ESPNS broadcast, there is
nothing worse for an MLB playerthan having a getaway day the next day or a
real early start for a day game and going into extra innings the night before, and that is exactly what we have here.
If you watched the
game last night, it was pretty much a microcosm of both teams season in a
whole. St Louis did not generate their 4th hit of the ball game until the 10th
inning, and the Dodgers had 7 hits before the extra innings, but could only muster two runs.
The
game was stuck at 2 runs a piece and both teams had multiple opportunities to take the lead, but
could not cash in. Both of these teams have struggled lately with
runners in scoring position, and it is beyond painful to watch. The Dodgers acquired
super star Hanley Ramirez to try to help solve their problems. Funny enough,
he was the only one who produced, scoring a run and driving in an RBI for both
of the teams runs.
Todays pitchers and
line on the game
As if things weren't
bad enough for the starting offenses, they'll face two pitchers who have been
dominant as of late. LA will send Chris Capuano to the hill with St. Louis
countering with Jake Westbrook.
MLB odds makers have opened up St Louis a -137
favorite with the OVER/UNDER set at 9. Capuano has been rock solid on the year
for the LA with a 10-5 record, 2.81 ERA, giving up just 107 hits in 125 innings
pitched. In day games Chris has been at his best with a 2.48 ERA, giving up
just 51 hits in 65 IP, with a domininating 60 Ks and just 18 earned runs.
So
here we have a St Louis offense that couldn't get their 4th hit of the game
until the 10th inning last night, coming off very short rest, facing this
Capuano. Have fun with that. St Louis is very old in the middle of the line up
when you think about it, with Beltran, Berkman and Holiday. These guys have
been around a very long time, and they are starting to feel the grind of the
season and not nearly producing as much as they were before the all star break, and its showing.
Cardinals, Jake
Westbrook gets the task of shutting down a Dodgers lineup, which before the New
York Mets series had not scored more than 2 runs in a game in 5 straight games.
I could score more than 2 runs against the Mets right now, so let’s throw that
out the window and pretend it didn’t happen.
Westbrook has been an absolute
ground ball machine in his home ball park. When guys make contact with his
sinker, it’s absolutely beaten into the ground to an infielder for an easy out.
Rarely do you ever see a fly ball or home run off Westbrook in his home ball
park and he has the numbers to support it. In his last 3 starts, Jake owns an
ERA of 2.14, giving the Cardinals a total of 21 innings pitched, reaching the
7th in each start, while giving up just 17 hits and only 5 earned runs.
Westbrook owns an awesome ground ball ratio of 58% with an xFIP of 3.55 to back
up all of his numbers, showing he is no fluke.
Don't be surprised if
we have a repeat of last night’s game in which neither team can find home
plate, especially with these two starting pitchers going and everyone tired,
coming off short rest. We fully expect this game to stay UNDER the total of 9,
in an ugly, boring ball game.
Our first MLB Pick of
the Day is Dodgers Cardinals UNDER 9.
Blue Jays vs. Oakland A's
Another Thursday baseball matchup that stands out is the showdown between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. Oakland has won 9 of their last 10; own the best record in baseball
over the past month in a half, pulling their team record to 53-44. They send
starting pitcher Tommy Milone to the mound, who just had a 10k shutout
performance against the Yankees, and has a
9-6 record overall with a 3.34 ERA. For some strange reason the odds makers have opened up an
injury riddled Blue Jays team, missing their best player Jose Bautista and now
catcher JP Arencibia, as a -115 favorite. Somebody knows something here that we
don't and we won't be fooled and fall along into the trap.
Tommy Milone
He is the reason the
odds makers have opened Toronto the favorite. Yes, Milone just shut down the
Yankees offense while looking like Tom Glavine, but this guy is a totally different
pitcher on the road. Away from Oakland Colissuem,
Milone owns an ERA of 5.69, a full 2 points higher than his natural ERA, has
given up a gut wrenching 80 hits in just 61 innings pitched, while serving up
45 earned runs and a staggering 17 home runs. This guy owns a fastball that runs at 85 and a change up at
79-80mph. Aside from that his arsenal is shot.
He benefits greatly from hitting the corners, pitching to contact, and pitching in a spacious Oakland
ballpark. However, you see the results when he is not pitching at home, and without the aid of a large ballpark he becomes a very below average pitcher.
Despite all the
injuries to the lineup, the Blue Jays are killing left handed pitchers (which
Milone is) over their last 5 games. They are hitting .269 as a team with a .367
OBP while averaging close to 5 runs per game. You put both of these together,
(Milones road numbers and Blue Jays numbers against LHP) and you have an
explosion of runs, and that’s what I am expecting today from the Toronto offense.
Aaron Laffey
After being a
journeyman his entire career, bouncing around from bullpen to starting pitcher
it seems, Aaaron Laffey has finally figured it out and found a home in Toronto.
Laffey is 2-1 on the year with a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He's coming off his
strongest outing of the year in which he faced a potent Red Sox offense in
Fenway, going 7 scoreless innings, scattering 8 hits and striking out 4. Laffey
will surely coming into this game feeling huge in confidence off of that start
and will look to build off of it.
This baseball betting lines have been set low for a reason. The books want to draw in as much Oakland money as they can,
and this will most likely be the game they make the most money on all day. If
there was every such thing as a trap or sucker line, this is it. We aren't
going to fall into it and neither should you.
Toronto Blue Jays
-115 is our final MLB Pick of the Day. Good luck everyone!