Repeat after me: Russ Ortiz + Minute Maid Park + Chicago Cubs Lineup = Over. Look for the scoreboard to light up in Houston on Thursday night.
I like over the total when the Cubs and Astros conclude their two-game set in Houston on Thursday. Why? Russ Ortiz. Still need more reasons to play over the total?
OK, just in case you think a washed-up Ortiz still has something left despite a 5.21 ERA and lifetime control problems, consider this: The Cubs are starting lefthander Ted Lilly. He's a flyball pitcher facing a top-heavy right-handed Astros lineup in a hitter's park. Lilly's road ERA this season is 9.00. The Over has cashed in eight of Lilly's last 10 road outings.
The Cubs' two key relief pitchers – setup man Carlos Marmol and closer Kevin Gregg – have each pitched in three of Chicago's past four games.
Houston's bullpen, though, is in far worse shape. Closer Jose Valverde is out. So is Doug Brocail, one of the Astros' key setup men. With the exception of journeyman LaTroy Hawkins the Astros relievers are a bunch of arsonist no-names who have fatigue issues going into this matchup.
The Cubs have scored at least six runs in four of their last six games. They should be able to knock out the wild Ortiz early and get into the Astros' highly vulnerable bullpen. Topping things off is Andrian Johnson is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over is 14-2-4 the last 20 times Johnson has been behind the plate. This is a one-unit play for me.
Free Pick: Cubs-Astros Over 9½ (-115)