5* graded play on the St. Louis
Cardinals as they take on the Chicago Cubs in the first of a three game series.
It has ben confirmed that the Cubs and Dodgers are nearing a
deal that would bring starting pitcher Ryan Dempster to the Dodgers.The Cubs
have publicly stated on many occasions that they are motivated to acquire young
pitching in their rebuilding plans. I believe that top-prospect Zack Lee would
have to be the bait used by the Dodgers to land Dempster.
Be aware, that although Dempster is the named starter for
tonight's game, this could suddenly change.The play on the Cardinals is valid
as outlined in the event Dempster is moved this afternoon.
The MLB odds makers opened this
game with the Cardinals a -150 favorite and the line is still holding with the
total dropping to 8 from its opening position of 8.5.
In my opinion, the Cardinals are
becoming one of the most dangerous teams in the National League and have the
pieces in place to make a solid run at the Central division title. They are
just two games over .500, but have outscored their opponents by a NL-best 64
runs. They trail division leader Cincinnati by five games and are tied for
fifth in the wild card race led by co-leaders Pittsburgh and Atlanta.
The Cubs have played some of
their best baseball of the season recently and are winners of seven of their last 10 games, but
are still a very flawed team with many holes in their roster. They have been
outscored by their opponents to the tune of 55 runs this season ranking fifth
worst in the National League.
The Cardinals are clearly the
superior offensive team when compared to the struggling Cubs. The Cardinals
rank second best in baseball posting a .273 team batting average and only Texas
with the AL designated hitter rank better. The Cardinals rank sixth averaging
4.79 runs per game, 11th averaging 1.09 home runs per game, and fourth
averaging 3.41 walks per game.
By comparison the Cubs rank 19th
in MLB with a .250 team batting average, 28th averaging just 3.80 runs per
game, 25th averaging 0.86 home runs per game, and 30th averaging 2.29 walks per
game. Ranking dead last in walks per game shows that they are not a patient
hitting team and will put themselves in poor hitting counts early in the
majority of at-bats.
Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 70-19 for 79% winners since 2006.Play on all dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 and is a
struggling offensive team averaging 4.1 runs per game with a starting pitcher
whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start and is now facing a good starting
pitcher posting an ERA of 3.70 or less on the season.
Here is a second system that has
produced a 71-25 mark for 74% winners and has made 36.4 units per one unit
wagered since 1997. Play on home favorites with a money line of
-110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the
season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is
1.050 or better on the season.
Remember always, that the
technical systems and game situations serve only to reinforce the play as
graded and validated by the simulator. They are NOT a sole reason that this
play is being made.
The Cubs are in a series of poor
situations for this game. They are just 6-23 losing
13.7 units per one unit wagered using the money line in road games when
facing NL teams allowing 4.3 or less
runs per game this season; 20-37 losing
18.2 units using the money line when facing a weak bullpen that blows 38% or
more of their save opportunities over the last two seasons; 4-21 losing 15.8
units per one unit wagered using the money line in road games revenging a one
run loss to opponent in games played over the last two seasons.
the Cardinals as part of your MLB picks for today.