The Phillies are cruising with the best record in the majors
as they welcome the Atlanta Braves to town. Atlanta has enjoyed a fine season as well
with the third-best mark in the NL, but sits 7.5-games behind Philadelphia in the National League East race.
Monday's contest is set for a 7:05 PM (ET) first pitch from
lefthander Cliff Lee whose Phillies opened -200 on the MLB odds. The Braves send Derek Lowe to the mound as he will try to do his part to keep the Phillies from pushing the predicted 7-run total.
Philadelphia
was expected to have the best rotation in baseball, and those expectations have
been met. Name almost any significant
statistical category and Phillies starters rank at or near the top 3.
They're an MLB-best in ERA (2.93), WHIP
(1.12), complete games (15) and opponents OPS (.643) to name four.
Atlanta's
rotation isn't far behind in many of those columns, fifth in ERA (3.56), eighth
in WHIP (1.24) and third in OPS (.682). The Braves are well down the list in complete games with just three, but
Fredi Gonzalez has arguably the best bullpen in the majors at his disposal to
more than make up for that.
Atlanta Braves relievers own a
2.98 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and are led by the outstanding young righty-lefty duo
of Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters.
It certainly sets the stage for what would be a nice
showdown between the two staffs in the NLCS. The Phillies are presently -125 in MLB betting futures to win the
pennant followed by the Brewers (+340) and Braves (+440).
This will be the 13th time the rivals have met this year and
the season series stands tied, 6-6. It
will be the fourth time for both Lowe (9-12, 4.52) and Lee (15-7, 2.59) to meet
the Phillies and Braves respectively.
It's been a real grind for Lowe all year, but he has
recently showed signs of turning things around. The righthander owns a 1.50 ERA his last three starts, two of them wins. He's also spent most of the 2011 season
toiling on the road, Monday's outing his 18th away start compared to 12 at
home.
Derek Lowe has a strong 2.84 ERA in his three games vs. Philadelphia, but the
Braves are just 1-2 to show for it.
Cliff Lee is coming off a phenomenal August when he won all five
starts with an incredible 0.45 ERA. Equally incredible is that it was his second-best month of the season after
going 5-0 with a 0.21 ERA in June. Lee
has been very tough to beat at home where his ERA is 2.13; the Phillies are
11-4 in his 15 starts at Citizens
Bank Park.
He had his worst start of the season in Atlanta back in April, but has since made two
nice appearances against the Braves with the Phillies 1-2 in the three starts.
Lee and Lowe faced off in Philadelphia on May 6, and both pitched
well. The Braves got the 5-0 win as +130
dogs with Lowe tossing six scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. Lee
surrendered three runs in his seven innings and set a new career high with 16
strikeouts.
There is a chance for rain in the Philadelphia area on Monday, so keep an eye
on the weather forecast before going to the Sportsbooks.
Taking a Chance: It's
difficult to bet against Lee in his current form, and still hard to trust Lowe
despite his current form. Atlanta
is probably going to be without Kimbrel for this one after he pitched five of
the last six days. Venters should become
the closer for this one, not a bad backup, but still a thinner Braves bullpen. Eat the chalk with Lee and the Phillies, and
play the UNDER if you think Lowe is going to continue his recent ways.