After the 16 run offensive display put on last night, expect the Rockies and the Diamondbacks to settle into a low scoring affair this time around.
While Max Scherzer VS. Aaron Cook in Colorado may not look like a pitcher’s duel to the untrained eye, the numbers suggest that it just might be.
Scherzer has pitched very well in his first full year as a starter, and like the other members of his staff in Arizona has been the victim of bad run support. He has nasty stuff, striking out 97 batters in 96.1 innings to average just about a K per inning on the season.
His 3.64 ERA is impressive in its own right, but Scherzer has actually pitched a lot better on the road this season. In eight road starts, Scherzer has given up only two home runs and batters are hitting only .231 against him, which has led to a microscopic 2.15 ERA.
Scherzer has given up three earned runs over six innings both times he has faced the Rockies in his career.
After getting off to a slow start on the year, Aaron Cook has been masterful over the last month and a half. Over his last eight starts, Cook is 6-0 (the Rockies are 7-1), and he has given up only one earned run in five of those starts. He has given up more than three earned runs only once in that stretch.
Against Arizona on July 4th he pitched five innings and gave up two earned runs.
While Arizona’s bats had come around heading into the all-star break, they went back to sleep coming out of it. In three games against the Cardinals, the Diamondbacks managed to get only six runs across home plate. Last night the D’backs did manage to put up five runs against the late relief, but the Rockies were just putting out some of their depth relievers since they were sitting on a nine run lead. Jorge De La Rosa held Arizona to only one run over seven innings.
Aaron Cook isn’t the type of pitcher that is going to overpower an offense, but he should be able to continue to do what he has done throughout most of June and July; give up three runs or less over six innings or so.
Max Scherzer on the other hand IS the type of pitcher that can take over a game; but against an offense like Colorado’s I’m certainly not asking him to do that. Scherzer has given up three runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts this season; if he keeps with that trend, things should be just fine.
The Pick: Arizona @ Colorado Under 9.5 (-120)