It's a low mark for the total in tonight's Rockies, Giants matchup at AT&T Park in San Francisco, but for good reason with Jorge De La Rosa and Matt Cain on the mound.
Betting the Under on a run total as low as 7.5 doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for error. But in some situations, like today’s game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants, it is worth taking a shot on.
Matt Cain has had an outstanding year, finally putting it all together and reaching his potential. His 13-5, 2.61 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 151 K season is one of the main reasons the Giants are still in the race for the playoffs, alongside fellow young ace Tim Lincecum.
Not only has Cain been strong over the course of the entire season, but he’s also been strong against the Colorado Rockies over the course of his career. In 17 games against the Rockies Cain is 8-5 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a .212 batting average against in 102.2 IP.
Opposite Cain this evening is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, Jorge De La Rosa. The 28-year old southpaw just keeps on winning and keeps on putting up dominant numbers, sporting an 8-2 record, 3.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a .248 batting average against in 70 innings pitched since the All-Star break. Like Cain, De La Rosa has matched up well historically against tonight’s opponent. In nine games (six starts) against San Francisco, De La Rosa is 5-0 with a 3.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .233 batting average against.
Both pitchers have been pitching well of late, and both have done well historically against the team they are up against tonight.
On the offensive side of things, the Rockies bats have been extremely cold. Colorado has only scored more than four runs once in the last nine games, and three or less in four straight. They are averaging just over three runs a game over this nine-game stretch, and it’s hard to see them getting much more than three against Cain and a strong Giants bullpen.
San Francisco bats have come alive over their last three games as they scored seven against the Dodgers and nine and 10 against the Rockies. If this game goes over, it will likely be at the hand of the Giants’ hot bats; but I expect Jorge De La Rosa to cool them off.
The Pick: Rockies/Giants Under 7½ runs (-120)