The Dodgers' hot start has slowed since the All-Star break while the Colorado Rockies appear to be on another late-season run with the NL West title coming down to the wire.
It doesn’t seem like all that long ago that the Los Angeles Dodgers had the best record in baseball and were sitting so comfortably at the top of the NL West that they were already being penciled in as the division winners, and the rest of the division was just an afterthought.
It also doesn’t seem like that long ago that Colorado Rockies manager Clint Hurdle was fired after the team stumbled out of the gate to an 18-28 start and found themselves 14 games behind the Dodgers, well on their way to a long and painful season.
But baseball’s regular season is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Entering Friday night’s action the Colorado Rockies have won seven straight games and are only two games back on the Dodgers for the division lead. They lead the San Francisco Giants by 4.5 games in the NL wild card race. The Rockies will attempt to close the gap this weekend against the San Diego Padres, who have been playing good baseball of late and would love to play the spoiler role at home.
The Giants and Dodgers will clash in a series that is critical to both teams; the Dodgers must try to hold on to and add to their division lead, while the Giants will attempt to gain ground on both of their NL West foes.
Los Angeles Dodgers +109 @ San Francisco Giants -119
Over/Under 7.0 runs (-120/+100)
If you are a fan of trends, grabbing the Dodgers at +109 may not be a bad idea. Matt Cain has 12 career starts against Los Angeles, and has a mediocre line of 3.97 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and a .301 batting average against. While these numbers aren’t spectacular by any standards, it does come as surprising that his record over that span of 12 starts is 0-6.
Cain has never beaten the Dodgers in his entire career. They are the only division rival that he hasn’t picked up a win against (four against Arizona, eight against Colorado, four against San Diego), and the only National League team besides Philadelphia (0-2 in four starts) that he hasn’t beaten.
A quick look at Hiroki Kuroda’s success at AT&T Park makes the +money look even more enticing. Kuroda has started three games against the Giants on their home turf, and has the following line:
19.2 IP, 1-0, 0.93 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .232 BAA.
It’s only a three-game sample size, but dazzling numbers are dazzling numbers, and Kuroda seems to like pitching at AT&T Park.
While they haven’t been the dominant team they were in the early stages of the year, the Los Angeles Dodgers have still played pretty good baseball of late. In their last six series, the Dodgers are 4-1-1 with a 12-8 overall record. By comparison, the Giants over their last six series are 3-3 with a 10-9 overall record.
By and large, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, and both are sending a very capable pitcher to the mound. Yes, Matt Cain is the better pitcher by the numbers, but Kuroda has been very strong too and is tough to beat. Los Angeles has gone 7-3 in their last 10 starts with Kuroda on the mound, and he has gone at least five innings and given up three earned runs or less in nine of those 10 starts.
In what should be a very good pitching duel that will likely be decided by one odd bounce or one mistake pitch, I think that taking the +109 on the Dodgers has some value. I’d also strongly consider the under seven; it is an awfully low total, but with these two on the mound, it should be.
The Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers +109, Under 7.0 +100
Colorado Rockies -137 @ San Diego Padres +127
Over/Under 8 runs (-120/+100)
Both of these teams have been red-hot of late, and this one should be a great series. San Diego has won five straight series with an overall record of 11-4 over that stretch. The Rockies, of course, come into the game winners of seven straight games and nine of their last 10.
While this should be a very good series, let’s not over-think this one; since the beginning of June, it doesn’t get any more automatic than betting Jorge De La Rosa when he takes the mound.
In his last 17 starts, De La Rosa is 14-3. That’s no typo. He has factored into the decision in all 17 of his starts since June, and it has almost always been a favorable decision. De La Rosa has surrendered three earned runs or less in 13 of the 17 starts, and two or less in 10 of them. De La Rosa pitches well, and the Rockies hit for him. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
It doesn’t hurt De La Rosa backers that Edward Mujica, a solid relief pitcher, is making his first career start tonight. One of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last few months against a guy making his first career start, it’s an easy call for me.
I’ll stay away from the Over/Under. Don’t know what to expect from Mujica, and while it feels like the type of game that should stay under, both of these offenses have shown the ability to get runs when they need to.
The Pick: Colorado Rockies -137