Josh Johnson has been impressive since coming off of the DL, and with Billy Wagner now disabled for the Mets, has the better closer behind him. Pelfrey has struggles vs. the Marlins so take Florida.
Two promising pitchers match up here, Josh Johnson for Florida Marlins and Mike Pelfrey for the New York Mets.
Both have been pitching well, but Johnson has the stronger history and is backed by the better closer, so I'll go with the underdog Marlins. Florida is 5-0 in Johnson's starts this season, and he has been solid since coming off the DL with a 2-0 mark and 3.34 ERA. He's 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four career starts versus the Mets. Florida closer Kevin Gregg is much better than anything the Mets can scrape up in their arsonist bullpen.
Pelfrey is 0-2 versus the Marlins this season. He has a 7.53 ERA during his past three starts against Florida. One of the keys to this matchup is have the Marlins regained their power? Florida had gone a season-high four games without homering until Saturday when Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs went long. The feeling here is the Marlins have regained their power.
The combination of Florida's power, Johnson's history versus the Mets and the Marlins' bullpen edge make the Marlins a worthy underdog.
Free Pick: Marlins +125