The San Francisco Giants began this week’s home set against the San Diego Padres with Monday’s 7-1 victory, collecting as 159 favorites. Tuesday’s rematch has Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner listed to oppose Padres righty Edinson Volquez.
Joe Freda’s 2012 MLB Record: 41-42-2 (-2.03 ROI)
Bumgarner outdueled in Atlanta
Bumgarner logged a second loss in three starts with Thursday’s 3-2 defeat for San Francisco as a 106 road dog against the Atlanta Braves. The 22-year-old surrendered two homers as part of three hits allowed, while tossing eight strikeouts over seven innings.
Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera notched a 2-for-3 day, including his eighth triple of the year. San Francisco’s Buster Posey and Emmanuel Burriss drove in one run each, uniting to hit 3-for-7.
The contest’s five runs dipped below the ‘total’ of 7 ½, bringing the UNDER to 4-2 in Bumgarner’s last six outings. San Francisco finished with nine hits, while Giants infielder Pablo Sandoval recorded the duel’s sole error.
Volquez shuts out Astros
Volquez tossed a one-hit shutout in Thursday’s 1-0 triumph as a 152 home favorite against the Houston Astros. The Dominican Republic native lasted a full nine frames (117 pitches), logging five strikeouts and three walks.
Padres second baseman Logan Forsythe brought in his squad’s sole run, driving in leadoff man Alexi Amarista in the first inning. Amarista poked his side’s sole extra-base hit, drilling a double as part of a 1-for-3 outing.
The tight affair plunged below the ‘total’ of six, making the UNDER 3-2 in Volquez’ last five starts. San Diego’s Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin were both held to 0-for-3 nights, with Headley recording two of his lineup’s eight strikeouts.
Back the OVER in San Fran
Tuesday’s first pitch is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. (ET). The weather forecast in San Francisco calls for a 60 degree evening, with 85 percent humidity and calm winds blowing outward.
I am adding the OVER in this matchup to my night of MLB betting action, despite the contest appearing to most observers as a potential pitcher’s duel.
MLB odds makers currently have the Giants installed as big home favorites at -179. The total is has been reduced slightly to 6.
Bumgarner’s numbers have started to rise, giving up 11 runs over his last three starts (19 IP). The stretch has included allowing six long balls, while the OVER has cashed at 4-1 in Bumgarner’s last five outings against the Padres.
San Diego’s Chase Headley and Jesus Guzman have combined for five extra-base hits in 34 at-bat’s facing Bumgarner, while uniting for nine RBIs. The duo’s mate Chris Denorfia could see some action here with a 10-for-24 lifetime mark against the southpaw, including five doubles, while entering the series hot with five RBIs over a 5-for-9 stretch in his prior three games.
Volquez has gotten tight in his last five outings, but has had his share of challenges against the Giants’ lineup before. The eighth-year hurler has allowed 13 runs over his last 12 IP against Cabrera and Co., dating back to 2008 in his days with the Cincinnati Reds’ staff.
The OVER has collected at 8-2 in San Diego’s last 10 road games against left-handed starters, while going 4-0 in Volquez’ last four starts away from home. Look for both lineups to have their share of chances, driving in just enough runs to leap OVER the low ‘total’ here.