Check out our free MLB pick in favor of the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they look to Ian Kennedy to lead the way in tonight's matchup against the San Diego Padres. Find out why we are counting on the Diamondbacks to cash for us tonight.
Ian Kennedy and the diamondbacks have opened as the MLB odds favorites in tonight's matchup, with most MLB betting shops listing them at -141. The matchup's total is being offered at 6.5 runs, but I have decided to focus my MLB picks on the money line, as I feel that it offers us the best value.
Arizona is getting off a solid start to the 2012 season. They are 4-1
and only the surprising LA Dodgers are better with a 5-1 record in the National
League West. San Diego has yet to play a road game and have started out 2-4 for
the season. In those six games they have scored just 20 runs and offense will
continue to be a negative factor for the Padres as the season moves forward.
Ian Kennedy gets the start for
Arizona, and based on the simulator projections, he will pitch well and complete
at least 6 ? innings of work. He got the win in his opening day start pitching
6 ? innings scattering nine hits and allowing three earned runs in a 5-4 win
over the Giants.
Kennedy has five seasons of MLB
experience, and he is showing signs of being a dominating pitcher in 2012. In the
respective careers of the current members of the San Diego Padres, Kennedy has
allowed a 2.07 batting average spanning 111 at-bats. Only Nick Hundley, who is
4-for-13, has had any margin of success against Kennedy.
Kennedy has four pitches, but his
best two are his curve and change. Batters are hitting just .184 against his
change and he will throw it nearly equally against right and left-handed batters.
Even when behind in the count and the situation favors a fastball, he will
throw the change 20% of the time and the curve/slider 12%. So, in a batter’s
preparation, he cannot always just sit on a fastball in 2-0, 2-1 situations.
Padres Lack Offense
If not for some timely key hits,
the Padres offense would be even more anemic. They rank 21st with 20 runs
scored, 29th batting .183, 12th with a .311 on-base-percentage, and 29th with a
.277 slugging percentage. Granted, there are just six games of stats, but from
top to bottom the Padres are a very weak offensive team.
Given injuries to starting
pitchers Tim Stauffer and Dustin Moseley, Bass has now been moved into the
starting rotation. It was initially thought that Moseley only had a minor
shoulder strain, but an MRI revealed substantial damage. This is unfortunate
news for him and the Padres as he is coming off season-ending surgery last
Bass has an excellent slider that
he features in nearly every at-bat, which has worked very well as a reliever. A
starter must show different pitch sequences each time through the lineup and
MLB hitters, who can see the same sequences of pitches will be more successful
the more they see the pitches. His fastball is average and I believe that the
Diamondback hitters will be able to sit on the fastball early in the count.
The simulator shows a high
probability that Arizona will win this game. Arizona starter Ian Kennedy is a
near-perfect 14-1 making 13.7 units facing the money line when facing low
power teams that are averaging 0.75 or less home runs per game over the last
two seasons; 8-1 making 8.2 units per one unit wagered using the money line in
road games when facing teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per
game over the last two seasons.
the Arizona Diamondbacks.