Check out our free MLB pick in favor of the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they look to Ian Kennedy to lead the way in tonight's matchup against the San Diego Padres. Find out why we are counting on the Diamondbacks to cash for us tonight.

Ian Kennedy and the diamondbacks have opened as the MLB odds favorites in tonight's matchup, with most MLB betting shops listing them at -141. The matchup's total is being offered at 6.5 runs, but I have decided to focus my MLB picks on the money line, as I feel that it offers us the best value.

Arizona is getting off a solid start to the 2012 season. They are 4-1 and only the surprising LA Dodgers are better with a 5-1 record in the National League West. San Diego has yet to play a road game and have started out 2-4 for the season. In those six games they have scored just 20 runs and offense will continue to be a negative factor for the Padres as the season moves forward.

Ian Kennedy

Ian KennedyIan Kennedy gets the start for Arizona, and based on the simulator projections, he will pitch well and complete at least 6 ? innings of work. He got the win in his opening day start pitching 6 ? innings scattering nine hits and allowing three earned runs in a 5-4 win over the Giants.

Kennedy has five seasons of MLB experience, and he is showing signs of being a dominating pitcher in 2012. In the respective careers of the current members of the San Diego Padres, Kennedy has allowed a 2.07 batting average spanning 111 at-bats. Only Nick Hundley, who is 4-for-13, has had any margin of success against Kennedy. 

Kennedy has four pitches, but his best two are his curve and change. Batters are hitting just .184 against his change and he will throw it nearly equally against right and left-handed batters. Even when behind in the count and the situation favors a fastball, he will throw the change 20% of the time and the curve/slider 12%. So, in a batter’s preparation, he cannot always just sit on a fastball in 2-0, 2-1 situations. 

Padres Lack Offense

If not for some timely key hits, the Padres offense would be even more anemic. They rank 21st with 20 runs scored, 29th batting .183, 12th with a .311 on-base-percentage, and 29th with a .277 slugging percentage. Granted, there are just six games of stats, but from top to bottom the Padres are a very weak offensive team

Anthony Bass

Given injuries to starting pitchers Tim Stauffer and Dustin Moseley, Bass has now been moved into the starting rotation. It was initially thought that Moseley only had a minor shoulder strain, but an MRI revealed substantial damage. This is unfortunate news for him and the Padres as he is coming off season-ending surgery last August. 

Bass has an excellent slider that he features in nearly every at-bat, which has worked very well as a reliever. A starter must show different pitch sequences each time through the lineup and MLB hitters, who can see the same sequences of pitches will be more successful the more they see the pitches. His fastball is average and I believe that the Diamondback hitters will be able to sit on the fastball early in the count.

Simulator Projections

The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Arizona starter Ian Kennedy is a near-perfect 14-1 making 13.7 units facing the money line when facing low power teams that are averaging 0.75 or less home runs per game over the last two seasons; 8-1 making 8.2 units per one unit wagered using the money line in road games when facing teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game over the last two seasons.

Take the Arizona Diamondbacks.